Orbital Odyssey
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$43.63
72,682 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $39.26 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.44%
12 openings, odds method
Variance
0.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
36.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
64.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 12 openings and 4.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $185 308,593 BUX | 9.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 20 | $126 209,232 BUX | 16.0% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desolate Space (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 12.0% | $73.92 123,150 BUX | 22.6% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.69× |
| StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Flux (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 17.0% | $47.51 79,151 BUX | 20.6% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.47× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 19.0% | $27.39 45,631 BUX | 13.3% | 4 | 2.3 | 1.75× |
| StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6 | 20.0% | $17.81 29,671 BUX | 9.1% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
| StatTrak™ Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec | 25.0% | $14.27 23,773 BUX | 9.1% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.00× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Flux (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$43.6372,682 BUX$47.5179,151 BUX1.09x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$43.6372,682 BUX$27.3945,631 BUX0.63x
StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Flux (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$43.6372,682 BUX$47.5179,151 BUX1.09x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedkomnuu$43.6372,682 BUX$27.3945,631 BUX0.63x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$43.6372,682 BUX$27.3945,631 BUX0.63x
StatTrak™ Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$43.6372,682 BUX$14.2723,773 BUX0.33x
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$43.6372,682 BUX$126209,232 BUX2.88x
StatTrak™ Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$43.6372,682 BUX$14.2723,773 BUX0.33x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $43.63 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 31.0%covert knife 5.0%restricted 19.0%#d32ee6 20.0%mil spec 25.0%best hit —