20% JUICE
A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$13.00
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $11.37 from 36 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.04%
14.9K openings, odds method
Variance
4.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.53% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (80.75% – 87.32%, 14,900 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14.9K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/20-juice, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $13.00 | 87.50% | 36 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $13.00 | 87.39% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $13.00 | 87.50% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $13.00 | 87.39% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $13.00 | 87.73% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $13.00 | 87.53% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $13.00 | 87.49% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $13.00 | 87.53% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $13.00 | 87.49% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $13.00 | 87.81% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $13.00 | 87.60% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $13.00 | 87.42% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $13.00 | 87.63% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $13.00 | 87.42% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $13.00 | 87.44% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $13.00 | 87.63% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $13.00 | 87.14% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $13.00 | 87.53% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $13.00 | 87.38% | 36 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $13.00 | 87.53% | 36 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $13.00 | 87.38% | 36 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $13.00 | 87.34% | 36 |
| 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $13.00 | 87.60% | 36 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $13.00 | 87.42% | 36 |
| 3 Nov, 09:33 UTC | $13.00 | 88.80% | 36 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $13.00 | 87.42% | 36 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 0.0%sunny 0.2%covert 9.0%Ancient 1.1%pink 6.4%Legendary 7.0%uncommon 3.0%Mythical 9.4%#8847ff 5.6%Rare 2.3%violet 6.4%Restricted 3.8%restricted 4.6%blue 16.5%#4b69ff 11.9%common 7.2%milspec 5.7%best hit —