AFK
A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$5.00
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $4.37 from 34 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.07%
10.1K openings, odds method
Variance
52.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.1K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/afk, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $5.00 | 87.50% | 34 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $5.00 | 87.36% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $5.00 | 87.69% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $5.00 | 88.12% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $5.00 | 87.81% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $5.00 | 88.13% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $5.00 | 87.81% | 34 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $5.00 | 86.88% | 34 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $5.00 | 88.13% | 34 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $5.00 | 87.63% | 34 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $5.00 | 87.23% | 34 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $5.00 | 87.75% | 34 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $5.00 | 87.78% | 34 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $5.00 | 87.77% | 34 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $5.00 | 87.73% | 34 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $5.00 | 87.08% | 34 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $5.00 | 87.25% | 34 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $5.00 | 87.61% | 34 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.4%classified 4.3%restricted 4.6%pink 2.0%Classified 0.1%violet 49.5%exotic 7.9%#8847ff 10.8%#4b69ff 11.2%Mythical 9.1%best hit —