AFK JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$461.59
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $403.89 from 34 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.97%
648 openings, odds method
Variance
9.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 18
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
94.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 651 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/afk-joker, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $462 | 87.50% | 34 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $462 | 87.50% | 34 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $464 | 87.50% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $464 | 87.50% | 34 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $464 | 87.50% | 34 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $463 | 87.50% | 34 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $463 | 87.50% | 34 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $463 | 87.50% | 34 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $462 | 87.50% | 34 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $463 | 87.50% | 34 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $463 | 87.50% | 34 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 22.2%classified 20.8%restricted 10.2%pink 16.7%Classified 1.4%violet 10.9%exotic 5.6%#8847ff 3.0%#4b69ff 5.6%Mythical 3.7%best hit $6,432 (13.87x)