ALIEN
A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$1.25
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $1.09 from 53 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.46%
31.4K openings, odds method
Variance
13.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
14.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
68.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.31% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (78.35% – 86.57%, 31,403 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values53 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 31.5K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/alien, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $1.25 | 87.50% | 53 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $1.25 | 87.88% | 53 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $1.25 | 87.53% | 53 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $1.25 | 86.58% | 53 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $1.25 | 87.18% | 53 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $1.25 | 86.59% | 53 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $1.25 | 86.97% | 53 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $1.25 | 86.59% | 53 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $1.25 | 87.35% | 53 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $1.25 | 87.30% | 53 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $1.25 | 88.15% | 53 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.25 | 87.13% | 53 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $1.25 | 87.17% | 53 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $1.25 | 88.13% | 53 |
| 3 Nov, 09:33 UTC | $1.25 | 87.30% | 53 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $1.25 | 87.49% | 53 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedgold 0.0%covert 0.0%red 0.1%Ancient 0.0%uncommon 0.1%classified 0.1%pink 9.4%restricted 22.0%mil spec 8.6%Mythical 5.9%Legendary 0.1%violet 9.8%#4b69ff 1.5%#8847ff 1.6%Rare 2.8%blueLight 21.1%Uncommon 17.1%best hit $222 (177.6x)