ALIEN JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$74.37
Advertised RTP
87.51%
EV $65.08 from 53 items
Observed RTP, 30d
101.94%
701 openings, odds method
Variance
3.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.57% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (87.63% – 116.24%, 701 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values53 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 744 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/alien-joker, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.51%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $74.37 | 87.51% | 53 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $74.68 | 87.50% | 53 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $74.37 | 87.51% | 53 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $74.68 | 87.50% | 53 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $74.64 | 87.50% | 53 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $74.46 | 87.50% | 53 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $75.60 | 87.49% | 53 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $75.45 | 87.50% | 53 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $75.42 | 87.50% | 53 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $74.76 | 87.50% | 53 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $75.27 | 87.50% | 53 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $75.42 | 87.50% | 53 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $75.35 | 87.50% | 53 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $75.42 | 87.50% | 53 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $75.35 | 87.50% | 53 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $75.06 | 87.50% | 53 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $76.03 | 87.50% | 53 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedgold 4.8%covert 14.3%red 7.9%Ancient 1.6%uncommon 3.6%classified 4.8%pink 9.5%restricted 11.5%mil spec 9.9%Mythical 6.7%Legendary 1.2%violet 8.7%#4b69ff 1.6%#8847ff 1.6%Rare 2.8%blueLight 7.1%Uncommon 2.4%best hit $647 (8.58x)