ANTIDOTE

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$5.50

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $4.81 from 65 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.59%

7,207 openings, odds method

Variance

2.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

15.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

59.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

83.18%±9.59931 openings

7 days

89.16%±3.816,144 openings

30 days

87.59%±3.527,207 openings

since tracking started

87.59%±3.527,207 openings

73.0%83.3%93.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	931	83.18%±9.59	−0.9σ	odds
7d	6,144	89.16%±3.81	+0.8σ	odds
30d	7,207	87.59%±3.52	−0.0σ	odds
All	7,207	87.59%±3.52	−0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values65 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,210 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bayonet \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$238	1.0%	4	1.4	2.77×
★ Nomad Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$150	0.9%	3	2.2	1.39×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$143	0.6%	0	1.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 5,000	$137	0.6%	0	1.4	0.00×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$65.44	1.0%	2	5.0	0.40×
Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,250	$58.37	1.0%	8	5.8	1.39×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$44.05	0.3%	0	2.2	0.00×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 3,333	$42.23	0.3%	0	2.2	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 833	$41.83	1.0%	12	8.7	1.39×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 3,333	$38.14	0.2%	0	2.2	0.00×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 2,500	$37.68	0.3%	0	2.9	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 3,333	$36.22	0.2%	0	2.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 3,333	$35.17	0.2%	0	2.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 5,000	$26.30	0.1%	0	1.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,250	$23.75	0.4%	0	5.8	0.00×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,429	$23.72	0.3%	0	5.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 1,250	$23.20	0.4%	0	5.8	0.00×
P2000 \| Corticera (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 455	$22.15	1.0%	30	15.9	1.89×
P250 \| Mehndi (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 909	$21.87	0.5%	0	7.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 1,111	$20.90	0.4%	0	6.5	0.00×
P250 \| Mehndi (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 102	$19.95	4.1%	0	70.7	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 53	$19.65	7.8%	134	137.0	0.98×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,000	$17.82	0.2%	0	3.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 370	$16.28	0.9%	0	19.5	0.00×
Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 125	$15.10	2.5%	0	57.7	0.00×
Galil AR \| Eco (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 118	$14.66	2.6%	0	61.3	0.00×
Galil AR \| Eco (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 109	$14.10	2.7%	0	66.3	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 76	$13.83	3.8%	0	94.5	0.00×
Galil AR \| Firefight (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,111	$13.14	0.2%	0	6.5	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 68	$12.99	4.0%	0	106.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 137	$11.45	1.7%	0	52.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 164	$10.57	1.3%	0	44.0	0.00×
FAMAS \| Styx (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 27	$9.85	7.7%	240	271.1	0.89×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 65	$9.77	3.1%	0	111.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 112	$8.90	1.6%	0	64.2	0.00×
FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 23	$8.59	7.7%	235	310.8	0.76×
USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$8.17	5.1%	221	218.5	1.01×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 90	$7.60	1.8%	0	80.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 90	$7.60	1.8%	0	80.0	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 110	$7.08	1.3%	0	65.6	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 105	$6.73	1.3%	0	68.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 45	$6.67	3.1%	0	159.3	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 94	$6.56	1.4%	0	76.4	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 90	$6.41	1.5%	0	80.0	0.00×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 25	$6.07	5.1%	294	294.2	1.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 73	$5.88	1.7%	0	98.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 65	$5.56	1.8%	0	110.3	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 68	$4.99	1.5%	0	106.0	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 67	$4.45	1.4%	0	108.1	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 169	$2.94	0.4%	0	42.5	0.00×
Galil AR \| Firefight (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 137	$2.56	0.4%	0	52.6	0.00×
Galil AR \| Firefight (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 72	$1.63	0.5%	0	99.5	0.00×
Galil AR \| Firefight (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 60	$1.42	0.5%	0	120.4	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 61	$1.41	0.5%	0	119.0	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 58	$1.37	0.5%	0	124.0	0.00×
Galil AR \| Firefight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 55	$1.33	0.5%	0	131.9	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 55	$1.32	0.5%	0	130.5	0.00×
SG 553 \| Lush Ruins (Factory New)weapon · gray	1 in 119	$1.24	0.2%	0	60.6	0.00×
P250 \| Red Tide (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 42	$0.97	0.5%	0	172.3	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 12	$0.58	1.0%	667	621.5	1.07×
P250 \| Red Tide (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 17	$0.50	0.6%	0	434.8	0.00×
SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 11	$0.46	0.9%	678	681.3	1.00×
Galil AR \| Connexion (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 11	$0.46	0.9%	668	681.3	0.98×
SG 553 \| Lush Ruins (Minimal Wear)weapon · grey	1 in 25	$0.41	0.3%	0	285.5	0.00×
SG 553 \| Lush Ruins (Field-Tested)weapon · grey	1 in 21	$0.35	0.3%	0	341.8	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/antidote, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Galil AR | Firefightweapon · violet$5.50$1.770.32x1m

Galil AR | Connexion (Field-Tested)weapon · violet$5.50$0.460.08x1m

Glock-18 | Vogueweapon · pink$5.50$5.210.95x1m

Glock-18 | Vogueweapon · pinkKIBORG2002skins.army$5.50$5.210.95x1m

Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare$5.50$0.580.11x4m

P250 | Red Tideweapon · blue$5.50$0.630.11x4m

SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · violet$5.50$0.460.08x4m

Galil AR | Firefightweapon · violetKIBORG2002skins.army$5.50$1.770.32x4m

Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear)weapon · RareKaprix skins.army$5.50$0.580.11x13m

Galil AR | Connexion (Field-Tested)weapon · violetNRForceTomi$5.50$0.460.08x22m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$5.50	87.50%	65
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$5.50	87.46%	65
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$5.50	87.78%	65
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$5.50	87.81%	65
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$5.50	87.57%	65
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$5.50	87.18%	65
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$5.50	87.57%	65
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$5.50	87.96%	65
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$5.50	87.82%	65
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$5.50	87.44%	65
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$5.50	87.88%	65
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$5.50	87.53%	65
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$5.50	87.69%	65
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$5.50	87.53%	65
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$5.50	87.69%	65
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$5.50	87.63%	65
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$5.50	87.34%	65
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$5.50	87.48%	65
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$5.50	87.81%	65

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.3%red 0.1%classified 14.4%Ancient 0.0%pink 14.3%#d32ee6 1.0%restricted 9.0%Legendary 7.7%violet 24.5%Classified 1.4%Mythical 0.7%gray 0.8%Rare 17.0%grey 8.7%best hit —