ANTIDOTE JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$36.88
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $32.27 from 65 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.05%
1,336 openings, odds method
Variance
2.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 10
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.43% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (87.44% – 102.67%, 1,336 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values65 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,456 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/antidote-joker, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $36.88 | 87.50% | 65 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $37.07 | 87.50% | 65 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $36.88 | 87.50% | 65 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $37.07 | 87.50% | 65 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $36.80 | 87.50% | 65 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $36.90 | 87.50% | 65 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $36.52 | 87.50% | 65 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $36.80 | 87.50% | 65 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $37.45 | 87.49% | 65 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $37.04 | 87.50% | 65 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $37.49 | 87.49% | 65 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $37.04 | 87.50% | 65 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $36.95 | 87.49% | 65 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $36.83 | 87.51% | 65 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $37.26 | 87.49% | 65 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $37.19 | 87.49% | 65 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $37.09 | 87.72% | 65 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $37.19 | 87.49% | 65 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $37.36 | 87.51% | 65 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 15.8%red 3.3%classified 29.2%Ancient 0.8%pink 14.4%#d32ee6 1.7%restricted 5.3%Legendary 7.2%violet 10.7%Classified 0.8%Mythical 0.7%gray 1.1%Rare 6.7%grey 2.2%best hit —