ARCANA

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$120.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $105.00 from 40 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.31%

2,930 openings, odds method

Variance

1.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

22.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

71.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

95.38%±10.41320 openings

7 days

88.47%±4.531,726 openings

30 days

87.31%±3.422,930 openings

since tracking started

87.31%±3.422,930 openings

83.0%94.8%106.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	320	95.38%±10.4	+1.5σ	odds
7d	1,726	88.47%±4.53	+0.4σ	odds
30d	2,930	87.31%±3.42	−0.2σ	odds
All	2,930	87.31%±3.42	−0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,941 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 2,500	$2,285	0.9%	1	1.2	0.85×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,000	$1,880	0.9%	0	1.5	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,000	$1,707	0.8%	1	1.5	0.68×
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 2,000	$1,648	0.8%	0	1.5	0.00×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 1,667	$1,467	0.8%	2	1.8	1.13×
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1	1 in 769	$634	0.8%	5	3.8	1.31×
★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 57	$446	7.4%	48	51.2	0.94×
★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 41	$316	7.4%	77	72.1	1.07×
★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 38	$261	6.6%	73	78.2	0.93×
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 30	$209	6.6%	99	97.6	1.01×
★ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 28	$192	6.6%	105	106.5	0.99×
★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 26	$157	5.7%	134	112.3	1.19×
★ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 24	$145	5.7%	109	121.5	0.90×
AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 53	$141	2.5%	0	55.3	0.00×
★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 21	$125	5.7%	120	140.9	0.85×
AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$111	3.2%	0	87.9	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 18	$109	5.9%	169	167.3	1.01×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 17	$93.57	5.4%	180	177.9	1.01×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 67	$75.96	1.1%	0	44.1	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 51	$74.67	1.4%	0	57.6	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 54	$71.74	1.3%	0	54.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 61	$71.51	1.1%	0	47.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 37	$67.12	1.7%	0	79.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 70	$66.23	0.9%	0	42.1	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 54	$65.71	1.2%	0	54.1	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 54	$65.16	1.2%	0	54.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 42	$65.16	1.5%	0	69.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 38	$60.74	1.5%	0	77.1	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 37	$54.96	1.4%	0	79.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 53	$54.68	1.0%	0	55.0	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 36	$53.92	1.4%	0	81.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 49	$51.70	1.0%	0	59.7	0.00×
★ Hand Wraps \| Desert Shamagh (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 13	$50.37	3.7%	240	227.9	1.05×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 46	$48.87	1.0%	0	64.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 20	$43.38	2.1%	0	146.8	0.00×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 63	$21.97	0.3%	0	46.8	0.00×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 40	$16.00	0.4%	0	72.9	0.00×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 37	$15.10	0.4%	0	79.1	0.00×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 37	$15.02	0.4%	0	79.7	0.00×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 34	$14.72	0.4%	0	87.1	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/arcana, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1BERKAY$120$2,29219.10x15h

Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restrictedmarisxyz$120$1,71414.29x4d

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3USE CODE FBB$120$1,59213.26x7d

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$120$1,48312.36x1d

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1$120$6475.39x7d

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1Scofield_gda$120$6475.39x8d

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1$120$6445.36x6d

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1LYSY_HYPERCS2.MESKINS.ARMY$120$6345.29x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Kukri Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covertŁosiuuu$120$1921.60x24m

AK-47 | B the Monster (Field-Tested)weapon · rare$120$93.570.78x58m

AWP | Fever Dreamweapon · pink$120$16.050.13x58m

★ Kukri Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$120$1921.60x58m

AWP | Asiimovweapon · covert????????$120$1221.02x58m

AK-47 | B the Monster (Field-Tested)weapon · rarehossy$120$93.570.78x1h

★ Navaja Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$120$1251.05x1h

AWP | Fever Dreamweapon · pink$120$16.050.13x1h

★ Navaja Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$120$1251.05x1h

AWP | Fever Dreamweapon · pinkCICINKA67CS2.ME$120$16.050.13x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$120	87.50%	40
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$120	87.57%	40
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$120	87.37%	40
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$120	87.56%	40
9 Nov, 02:04 UTC	$120	87.59%	40
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$120	87.77%	40
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$120	87.59%	40
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$120	87.79%	40
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$120	87.98%	40
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$120	87.60%	40
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$120	87.98%	40
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$120	87.86%	40
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$120	87.48%	40
5 Nov, 04:40 UTC	$120	87.34%	40
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$120	87.62%	40
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$120	88.00%	40
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$120	87.79%	40
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$120	87.75%	40

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 58.1%extraordinary 11.6%restricted 0.1%gold 0.1%epic 2.5%rare 6.0%red 7.7%Ancient 1.4%classified 12.4%best hit $2,292 (19.10x)