ARCANA JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$561.84
Advertised RTP
90.50%
EV $508.46 from 40 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.32%
438 openings, odds method
Variance
1.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 747 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/arcana-joker, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1XM1NN$582$2,4324.18x
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1XM1NN$582$2,4324.18x
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1XM1NN$582$2,4324.18x
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1GruchaGbałagan$580$2,4264.18x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $562 | 90.50% | 40 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $568 | 90.50% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $567 | 90.50% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $576 | 90.50% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $571 | 90.50% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $574 | 90.50% | 40 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $574 | 90.50% | 40 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $576 | 90.50% | 40 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $579 | 90.50% | 40 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $580 | 90.50% | 40 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 61.5%extraordinary 12.5%restricted 4.2%gold 4.2%epic 4.2%rare 4.2%red 4.2%Ancient 1.0%classified 4.2%best hit $2,432 (4.18x)