BANK HEIST

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$11.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $9.63 from 66 items

Observed RTP, 30d

82.15%

6,010 openings, odds method

Variance

11.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

12.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

64.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

85.90%±21.051,018 openings

7 days

82.12%±8.635,065 openings

30 days

82.15%±8.046,010 openings

since tracking started

82.15%±8.046,010 openings

64.0%85.8%107.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,018	85.90%±21.1	−0.1σ	odds
7d	5,065	82.12%±8.63	−1.2σ	odds
30d	6,010	82.15%±8.04	−1.3σ	odds
All	6,010	82.15%±8.04	−1.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values66 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,018 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband	1 in 33,333	$6,120	1.9%	0	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 7,692	$759	1.0%	0	0.8	—
★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,778	$261	1.0%	0	2.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 5,882	$253	0.4%	0	1.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 3,704	$196	0.5%	0	1.6	0.00×
★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 1,695	$159	1.0%	3	3.6	0.84×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$156	0.3%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,538	$143	1.0%	5	3.9	1.28×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 4,167	$137	0.3%	0	1.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,030	$137	0.5%	0	2.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,704	$128	0.4%	0	1.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 2,564	$126	0.5%	0	2.3	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 1,282	$119	1.0%	1	4.7	0.21×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,125	$90.51	0.3%	0	1.9	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 11,111	$89.88	0.1%	0	0.5	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 3,333	$84.62	0.3%	0	1.8	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,564	$83.95	0.3%	0	2.3	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,632	$83.48	0.3%	0	2.3	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 2,326	$77.91	0.3%	0	2.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 7,143	$66.08	0.1%	0	0.8	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$65.44	0.3%	0	3.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 4,348	$61.15	0.1%	0	1.4	0.00×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,695	$60.50	0.4%	0	3.6	0.00×
USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,099	$47.11	0.4%	0	5.5	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 741	$44.40	0.6%	0	8.1	0.00×
FAMAS \| Djinn (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,941	$42.87	0.2%	0	2.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 34	$40.23	12.2%	0	176.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 174	$38.48	2.3%	0	34.5	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 42	$36.22	8.9%	0	141.8	0.00×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 190	$26.61	1.5%	0	31.7	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 256	$25.87	1.1%	0	23.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 115	$25.62	2.3%	0	52.3	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 130	$24.24	1.9%	0	46.4	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 126	$23.85	2.0%	0	47.9	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 61	$23.20	3.9%	0	98.5	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 118	$23.13	2.0%	0	51.0	0.00×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 108	$20.09	1.9%	0	55.5	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 157	$19.91	1.3%	0	38.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 60	$18.57	3.2%	0	99.5	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 441	$17.82	0.4%	0	13.7	0.00×
FAMAS \| Djinn (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 69	$16.83	2.5%	0	87.3	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 109	$16.55	1.6%	0	55.4	0.00×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 40	$15.43	4.0%	0	150.6	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 55	$14.84	2.8%	0	110.2	0.00×
FAMAS \| Djinn (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 32	$14.51	4.7%	0	187.8	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 52	$14.49	2.9%	0	115.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 48	$13.65	2.9%	0	125.1	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 42	$12.75	3.2%	0	143.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 41	$12.55	3.2%	0	147.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 321	$12.51	0.4%	0	18.8	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 120	$7.65	0.7%	0	50.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 180	$5.91	0.3%	0	33.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 210	$5.88	0.3%	0	28.7	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$5.01	3.1%	0	362.5	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 58	$4.88	0.9%	0	103.1	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 48	$4.22	0.9%	0	126.4	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 47	$4.16	0.9%	0	129.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 90	$3.22	0.4%	0	66.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 63	$2.78	0.5%	0	96.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 42	$1.87	0.5%	0	142.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 31	$1.67	0.6%	0	196.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 33	$1.56	0.5%	0	183.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 26	$1.33	0.5%	0	229.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 19	$1.19	0.6%	0	315.5	0.00×
AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Factory New)weapon · milspec	14.8%	$0.83	1.3%	908	888.2	1.02×
M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Factory New)weapon · Rare	15.8%	$0.71	1.2%	953	950.1	1.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/bank-heist, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Glitched Paintweapon · violet$11.00$1.910.17x4m

M4A4 | 龍王weapon · pinkTR(8SENPAİ7$11.00$18.181.65x4m

M4A1-S | Glitched Paintweapon · violet$11.00$1.910.17x15m

M4A1-S | Glitched Paintweapon · violetT1ffo CS2.ME$11.00$1.910.17x15m

AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)weapon · milspec$11.00$0.830.08x23m

FAMAS | Djinnweapon · pink.S3WCIU.$11.00$15.451.40x23m

MP9 | Food Chainweapon · pinkjose$11.00$5.210.47x34m

M4A1-S | Glitched Paintweapon · violetjose$11.00$1.910.17x34m

USP-S | Monster Mashupweapon · pinkjose$11.00$30.882.81x35m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$11.00	87.50%	66
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$11.00	87.33%	66
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$11.00	87.76%	66
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$11.00	87.28%	66
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$11.00	87.80%	66
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$11.00	87.55%	66
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$11.00	87.67%	66
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$11.00	87.73%	66
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$11.00	87.35%	66
7 Nov, 05:08 UTC	$11.00	87.73%	66
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$11.00	87.64%	66
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$11.00	87.68%	66
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$11.00	87.64%	66
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$11.00	87.72%	66
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$11.00	87.70%	66
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$11.00	87.54%	66
3 Nov, 16:38 UTC	$11.00	87.70%	66
3 Nov, 15:55 UTC	$11.00	87.64%	66
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$11.00	87.21%	66
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$11.00	87.64%	66

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcontraband 0.0%gold 0.0%covert 0.7%red 0.1%Ancient 3.0%epic 0.1%Covert 0.1%classified 23.2%pink 17.5%Legendary 0.8%#d32ee6 2.3%Mythical 1.4%violet 17.1%restricted 3.3%milspec 14.8%Rare 15.8%best hit —