BANK HEIST JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$340.68
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $298.09 from 66 items
Observed RTP, 30d
100.43%
337 openings, sample method
Variance
10.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 29
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 337 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values66 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 337 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/bank-heist-joker, 12 Nov, 02:49 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov, 02:49 UTC | $341 | 87.50% | 66 |
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $341 | 87.50% | 66 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $341 | 87.50% | 66 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $342 | 87.50% | 66 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $344 | 87.50% | 66 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $342 | 87.50% | 66 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $343 | 87.50% | 66 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $343 | 87.50% | 66 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $344 | 87.50% | 66 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $344 | 87.50% | 66 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $343 | 87.50% | 66 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $343 | 87.50% | 66 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcontraband 3.4%gold 3.4%red 5.2%covert 22.4%Ancient 3.4%epic 3.4%Covert 3.4%classified 17.9%pink 20.6%Legendary 0.9%#d32ee6 2.0%Mythical 1.4%violet 4.8%restricted 0.7%milspec 3.4%Rare 3.4%best hit $6,189 (17.98x)