BLAZE JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$334.76

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $292.91 from 50 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.35%

521 openings, odds method

Variance

3.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 13

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

94.00%±28.90147 openings

7 days

90.22%±15.80492 openings

30 days

90.35%±15.35521 openings

since tracking started

90.35%±15.35521 openings

64.5%94.0%123.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	147	94.00%±28.9	+0.4σ	odds
7d	492	90.22%±15.8	+0.3σ	odds
30d	521	90.35%±15.3	+0.4σ	odds
All	521	90.35%±15.3	+0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values50 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 566 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby	1 in 25	$2,858	39.0%	24	22.6	1.06×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 25	$1,184	16.2%	22	22.6	0.97×
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 25	$797	10.9%	23	22.6	1.02×
M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$662	9.0%	15	22.6	0.66×
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 25	$519	7.1%	23	22.6	1.02×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$277	0.9%	0	5.7	0.00×
MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$250	3.4%	15	22.6	0.66×
★ Nomad Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 25	$242	3.3%	30	22.6	1.33×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$212	0.7%	0	5.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$210	0.7%	0	5.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 100	$175	0.6%	0	5.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 100	$88.63	0.3%	0	5.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 100	$87.71	0.3%	0	5.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$83.95	0.3%	0	5.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 100	$75.44	0.3%	0	5.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$74.10	0.3%	0	5.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 100	$71.37	0.2%	0	5.7	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$67.44	0.9%	24	22.6	1.06×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$59.09	0.2%	0	5.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 100	$58.63	0.2%	0	5.7	0.00×
AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 75	$57.30	0.3%	0	7.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 100	$55.66	0.2%	0	5.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$55.23	0.2%	0	5.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$54.85	0.2%	0	5.7	0.00×
AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 75	$53.63	0.2%	0	7.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 100	$50.97	0.2%	0	5.7	0.00×
AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 75	$48.44	0.2%	0	7.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · Covert	1 in 75	$46.69	0.2%	0	7.5	0.00×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 100	$45.37	0.2%	0	5.7	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 75	$43.39	0.2%	0	7.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 75	$40.36	0.2%	0	7.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$37.46	0.5%	19	22.6	0.84×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 75	$37.36	0.2%	0	7.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 75	$36.15	0.2%	0	7.5	0.00×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 100	$35.86	0.1%	0	5.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 75	$35.86	0.2%	0	7.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Well-Worn)weapon · Ancient	1 in 75	$35.60	0.2%	0	7.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 75	$33.08	0.2%	0	7.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 75	$33.06	0.2%	0	7.6	0.00×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 100	$31.49	0.1%	0	5.7	0.00×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 100	$29.59	0.1%	0	5.7	0.00×
AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 25	$21.42	0.3%	27	22.6	1.19×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 75	$17.60	0.1%	0	7.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 75	$13.14	0.1%	0	7.5	0.00×
Galil AR \| Vandal (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 25	$12.26	0.2%	33	22.6	1.46×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 75	$10.77	0.0%	0	7.6	0.00×
Souvenir P250 \| Black & Tan (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · blue	1 in 25	$10.27	0.1%	20	22.6	0.88×
G3SG1 \| New Roots (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 25	$9.13	0.1%	30	22.6	1.33×
FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 25	$7.54	0.1%	21	22.6	0.93×
Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 25	$7.05	0.1%	30	22.6	1.33×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/blaze-joker, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby$337$2,8918.57x2d

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · RubyNaturalson$339$2,8688.47x6d

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby$339$2,8688.47x6d

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · RubyXAK1$339$2,8688.47x6d

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby$339$2,8688.47x7d

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby$338$2,8688.49x5d

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · RubyMÓJKODWACKIJA$337$2,8648.51x2d

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby$336$2,8648.52x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Printstreamweapon · red$332$2190.66x2h

FAMAS | Doomkitty (Field-Tested)weapon · blue$332$7.540.02x2h

M4A1-S | Printstreamweapon · redDeath13$332$2190.66x2h

AK-47 | Neon Riderweapon · red$332$63.030.19x2h

★ Nomad Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · epic$332$2400.72x2h

Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · classified$332$37.880.11x2h

FAMAS | Doomkitty (Field-Tested)weapon · blueDeath13$332$7.540.02x2h

M4A1-S | Printstreamweapon · red$335$2180.65x2h

★ Nomad Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · epic$335$2420.72x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$335	87.50%	50
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$332	87.50%	50
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$333	87.50%	50
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$334	87.50%	50
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$337	87.50%	50
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$337	87.50%	50
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$337	87.50%	50
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$336	87.50%	50
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$338	87.50%	50
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$339	87.50%	50
5 Nov, 04:40 UTC	$338	87.50%	50
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$339	87.50%	50
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$339	87.50%	50

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 4.0%covert 21.3%rare 7.0%classified 8.0%mil spec 4.0%epic 4.0%red 14.7%Ancient 7.7%Covert 1.3%Legendary 4.0%pink 8.0%blue 16.0%best hit $2,891 (8.57x)