BLOODY

A case on Casehug (BATTLE), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$19.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $16.62 from 70 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.78%

16.2K openings, odds method

Variance

3.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

15.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

66.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

87.07%±6.752,828 openings

7 days

86.84%±2.9913.9K openings

30 days

86.78%±2.7716.2K openings

since tracking started

86.78%±2.7716.2K openings

79.5%87.0%94.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2,828	87.07%±6.75	−0.1σ	odds
7d	13.9K	86.84%±2.99	−0.5σ	odds
30d	16.2K	86.78%±2.77	−0.6σ	odds
All	16.2K	86.78%±2.77	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values70 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16.3K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 10,000	$2,233	1.3%	3	1.6	1.84×
★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,238	0.7%	2	1.6	1.23×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$668	0.8%	3	3.3	0.92×
★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$659	0.8%	2	3.3	0.61×
★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 1,250	$182	0.9%	16	13.0	1.23×
★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,250	$176	0.8%	11	13.0	0.84×
★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,250	$174	0.8%	9	13.0	0.69×
AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,111	$156	0.8%	15	14.7	1.02×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 909	$127	0.8%	22	17.9	1.23×
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$104	0.3%	0	8.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$102	0.3%	0	8.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$101	0.3%	0	8.2	0.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 500	$72.45	0.9%	45	32.6	1.38×
USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 323	$67.89	1.3%	0	50.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 345	$67.35	1.2%	0	47.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 270	$66.23	1.5%	0	60.3	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 303	$63.82	1.3%	0	53.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 159	$59.09	2.2%	0	102.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 137	$55.23	2.4%	0	119.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 135	$54.85	2.4%	0	120.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 185	$54.68	1.8%	0	88.0	0.00×
G3SG1 \| The Executioner (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 769	$52.86	0.4%	0	21.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 167	$51.70	1.9%	0	97.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,250	$51.04	0.2%	0	13.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 149	$48.87	2.0%	0	109.2	0.00×
USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 192	$47.11	1.5%	0	84.8	0.00×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 222	$46.16	1.2%	0	73.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 189	$45.17	1.4%	0	86.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 164	$43.39	1.6%	0	99.4	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 164	$42.72	1.6%	0	99.4	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 159	$42.22	1.6%	0	102.7	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 156	$41.83	1.6%	0	104.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 141	$40.23	1.7%	0	115.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 143	$39.49	1.7%	0	114.1	0.00×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 152	$38.28	1.5%	0	107.6	0.00×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 152	$38.14	1.5%	0	107.6	0.00×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 145	$37.47	1.6%	0	112.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 127	$37.10	1.8%	0	128.8	0.00×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 123	$35.86	1.7%	0	132.0	0.00×
AUG \| Momentum (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 714	$34.85	0.3%	0	22.8	0.00×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 95	$31.49	2.0%	0	171.2	0.00×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 84	$29.59	2.1%	0	194.0	0.00×
AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 19	$27.19	8.6%	0	857.5	0.00×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 122	$23.38	1.2%	0	133.7	0.00×
AWP \| Crakow! (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon	10.1%	$19.60	11.9%	0	1649.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 185	$16.28	0.5%	0	88.0	0.00×
AUG \| Momentum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 164	$15.07	0.6%	0	99.4	0.00×
G3SG1 \| The Executioner (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 70	$12.13	1.0%	0	233.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 93	$9.77	0.6%	0	174.4	0.00×
G3SG1 \| The Executioner (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 50	$9.52	1.2%	0	327.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 103	$8.90	0.5%	0	158.1	0.00×
G3SG1 \| The Executioner (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 45	$8.81	1.2%	0	365.2	0.00×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 105	$8.74	0.5%	0	154.9	0.00×
AUG \| Momentum (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 64	$7.64	0.7%	0	255.9	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 15	$7.05	2.9%	1,167	1123.2	1.04×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 55	$6.67	0.7%	0	298.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 55	$6.67	0.7%	0	298.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 52	$6.43	0.7%	0	314.6	0.00×
AUG \| Momentum (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 47	$6.12	0.8%	0	348.9	0.00×
AUG \| Momentum (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 45	$5.94	0.8%	0	363.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 57	$5.88	0.6%	0	283.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 53	$5.56	0.6%	0	306.5	0.00×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 53	$5.34	0.6%	0	308.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 45	$4.94	0.7%	0	361.9	0.00×
CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Factory New)weapon · gray	1 in 13	$4.88	2.3%	1,325	1300.9	1.02×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 45	$4.79	0.6%	0	358.6	0.00×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 45	$4.79	0.6%	0	358.6	0.00×
P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 12	$4.16	2.1%	1,417	1387.3	1.02×
P2000 \| Panther Camo (Well-Worn)weapon · blueLight	1 in 22	$3.29	0.9%	0	753.2	0.00×
P2000 \| Panther Camo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · light blue	1 in 21	$3.21	0.9%	0	759.7	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/bloody, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$19.00$2,241118.0x8d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$19.00$2,237117.7x3d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyRose$19.00$2,234117.6x17h

★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covertMikeySwagger$19.00$1,23865.14x2d

★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$19.00$1,23865.14x1d

★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert$19.00$68235.88x5d

★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert$19.00$68035.77x2d

★ Talon Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert_Luck_PL$19.00$65934.71x1d

★ Talon Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert$19.00$64834.10x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P2000 | Panther Camoweapon · light blue$19.00$3.250.17x21s

P250 | Visions (Field-Tested)weapon · pink$19.00$4.160.22x21s

CZ75-Auto | Jungle Dashed (Factory New)weapon · graySoBoL BuK$19.00$4.880.26x21s

AUG | Momentumweapon · pink$19.00$7.830.41x5m

AK-47 | Ice Coaledweapon · pink$19.00$6.680.35x5m

Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkosiemano$19.00$7.050.37x5m

AWP | Crakow!weapon · pinkMcLovin1889$19.00$22.201.17x7m

SG 553 | Cyrexweapon · pinkNikoš$19.00$7.280.38x7m

SG 553 | Cyrexweapon · pink$19.00$7.280.38x13m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$19.00	87.50%	70
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$19.00	87.53%	70
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC	$19.00	87.17%	70
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$19.00	87.64%	70
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$19.00	87.13%	70
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$19.00	87.64%	70
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$19.00	87.86%	70
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$19.00	87.64%	70
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$19.00	87.86%	70
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$19.00	87.37%	70
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$19.00	87.87%	70
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$19.00	87.71%	70
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$19.00	87.01%	70
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$19.00	87.98%	70
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$19.00	87.50%	70
3 Nov, 16:38 UTC	$19.00	87.84%	70
3 Nov, 15:55 UTC	$19.00	87.33%	70
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$19.00	87.85%	70
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$19.00	87.33%	70

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 9.4%gold 0.3%extraordinary 2.6%red 4.0%Ancient 1.1%classified 12.2%pink 32.9%uncommon 10.1%Legendary 4.5%#d32ee6 4.0%Classified 1.7%gray 8.0%blueLight 4.6%light blue 4.7%best hit $2,241 (118.0x)