BLOODY JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$254.37
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $222.57 from 70 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.36%
719 openings, odds method
Variance
3.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values70 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 774 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/bloody-joker, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $254 | 87.50% | 70 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $254 | 87.50% | 70 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $254 | 87.50% | 70 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $254 | 87.50% | 70 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $256 | 87.50% | 70 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $255 | 87.50% | 70 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $257 | 87.50% | 70 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $256 | 87.50% | 70 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $257 | 87.50% | 70 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $257 | 87.50% | 70 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $257 | 87.50% | 70 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $258 | 87.50% | 70 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $258 | 87.50% | 70 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $258 | 87.50% | 70 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $259 | 87.50% | 70 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $260 | 87.50% | 70 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $260 | 87.50% | 70 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 42.9%gold 7.1%extraordinary 7.1%red 5.4%Ancient 1.8%classified 7.5%pink 14.3%uncommon 1.8%Legendary 2.9%#d32ee6 1.4%Classified 0.7%gray 3.6%blueLight 1.8%light blue 1.8%best hit $2,272 (8.78x)