BLOODY MARY
A case on Casehug (Event), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$20.00
Advertised RTP
87.31%
EV $17.46 from 47 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.34%
70.5K openings, odds method
Variance
2.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values47 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 70.6K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/bloody-mary, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.31%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $20.00 | 87.31% | 47 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $20.00 | 87.70% | 47 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $20.00 | 87.69% | 47 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $20.00 | 87.86% | 47 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $20.00 | 87.69% | 47 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $20.00 | 87.47% | 47 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $20.00 | 87.72% | 47 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $20.00 | 87.67% | 47 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $20.00 | 87.68% | 47 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $20.00 | 87.88% | 47 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $20.00 | 87.91% | 47 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $20.00 | 87.85% | 47 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $20.00 | 87.70% | 47 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $20.00 | 87.73% | 47 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.0%covert 2.3%restricted 1.0%classified 2.3%Covert 0.1%blue 39.7%mil spec 0.9%consumer 2.8%Ancient 0.7%red 3.6%rare 5.7%pink 16.9%violet 24.1%best hit $2,868 (143.4x)