BLOODY MARY JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$350.01

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $306.26 from 47 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.72%

3,526 openings, odds method

Variance

3.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 15

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

83.63%±7.342,342 openings

30 days

86.72%±5.983,526 openings

since tracking started

86.72%±5.983,526 openings

75.5%84.5%93.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	2,342	83.63%±7.34	−1.1σ	odds
30d	3,526	86.72%±5.98	−0.3σ	odds
All	3,526	86.72%±5.98	−0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values47 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,536 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby	1 in 30	$2,826	30.8%	121	117.9	1.03×
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 30	$1,899	20.7%	116	117.9	0.98×
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 30	$1,222	13.3%	111	117.9	0.94×
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 30	$880	9.6%	104	117.9	0.88×
★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 30	$651	7.1%	130	117.9	1.10×
Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 30	$592	6.4%	114	117.9	0.97×
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 120	$331	0.9%	0	29.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 120	$279	0.8%	0	29.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 120	$244	0.7%	0	29.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 120	$223	0.6%	0	29.5	0.00×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 30	$155	1.7%	123	117.9	1.04×
Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 60	$114	0.6%	0	58.9	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Well-Worn)weapon · Covert	1 in 60	$99.69	0.5%	0	58.9	0.00×
FAMAS \| Sundown (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 30	$85.05	0.9%	125	117.9	1.06×
Galil AR \| Shattered (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 30	$65.88	0.7%	122	117.9	1.04×
UMP-45 \| Bone Pile (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 30	$64.75	0.7%	129	117.9	1.09×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 30	$58.68	0.6%	105	117.9	0.89×
Five-SeveN \| Contractor (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 30	$46.56	0.5%	127	117.9	1.08×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 120	$45.26	0.1%	0	29.5	0.00×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 90	$44.46	0.2%	0	39.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 120	$42.21	0.1%	0	29.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 120	$41.84	0.1%	0	29.5	0.00×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 90	$41.75	0.2%	0	39.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 120	$41.11	0.1%	0	29.5	0.00×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 90	$37.76	0.1%	0	39.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 120	$34.15	0.1%	0	29.5	0.00×
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 120	$26.83	0.1%	0	29.5	0.00×
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 120	$24.92	0.1%	0	29.5	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 120	$24.08	0.1%	0	29.5	0.00×
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 120	$23.41	0.1%	0	29.5	0.00×
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 120	$23.19	0.1%	0	29.5	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 120	$23.10	0.1%	0	29.5	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 120	$23.08	0.1%	0	29.5	0.00×
Souvenir XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · violet	1 in 30	$22.92	0.2%	116	117.9	0.98×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Death Grip (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 30	$18.21	0.2%	125	117.9	1.06×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Rising Skull (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 30	$14.21	0.2%	111	117.9	0.94×
XM1014 \| VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 30	$12.24	0.1%	112	117.9	0.95×
Souvenir P250 \| Black & Tan (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · blue	1 in 90	$12.16	0.0%	0	39.3	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 30	$10.45	0.1%	106	117.9	0.90×
Souvenir P250 \| Black & Tan (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · blue	1 in 90	$10.27	0.0%	0	39.3	0.00×
Souvenir G3SG1 \| New Roots (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · blue	1 in 30	$8.57	0.1%	117	117.9	0.99×
Sticker \| Lucas (Foil)sticker · pink	1 in 30	$7.96	0.1%	126	117.9	1.07×
Souvenir P250 \| Black & Tan (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · blue	1 in 90	$7.93	0.0%	0	39.3	0.00×
FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 30	$7.27	0.1%	122	117.9	1.03×
Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 30	$7.05	0.1%	121	117.9	1.03×
Souvenir Nova \| Quick Sand (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · blue	1 in 30	$6.89	0.1%	127	117.9	1.08×
UMP-45 \| Plastique (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 30	$5.11	0.1%	122	117.9	1.03×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/bloody-mary-joker, 12 Nov, 08:52 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby$356$2,9178.20x8d

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · RubyKOD SOUL$356$2,9178.20x8d

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby$356$2,9178.20x9d

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Rubytriple$356$2,9178.20x9d

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby$356$2,9178.20x9d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · blueMÓJKODWACKIJA$350$12.240.03x2d

UMP-45 | Bone Pile (Factory New)weapon · mil specScofield_gda$350$64.750.18x2d

UMP-45 | Bone Pile (Factory New)weapon · mil specMÓJKODWACKIJA$350$64.750.18x2d

UMP-45 | Bone Pile (Factory New)weapon · mil specScofield_gda$350$64.750.18x2d

StatTrak™ P90 | Death Grip (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · violetMÓJKODWACKIJA$350$18.210.05x2d

USP-S | The Traitorweapon · redScofield_gda$350$41.320.12x2d

Sticker | Lucas (Foil)sticker · pink$350$7.960.02x2d

USP-S | The Traitorweapon · redMÓJKODWACKIJA$350$41.320.12x2d

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby$350$2,8268.07x2d

USP-S | The Traitorweapon · redMÓJKODWACKIJA$350$41.320.12x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$350	87.50%	47
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$351	87.50%	47
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$354	87.50%	47
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$351	87.50%	47
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$352	87.50%	47
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$353	87.50%	47
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$353	87.50%	47
7 Nov, 11:11 UTC	$353	87.50%	47
7 Nov, 05:08 UTC	$353	87.50%	47
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$353	87.50%	47
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$353	87.50%	47
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$354	87.50%	47
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$353	87.50%	47
5 Nov, 10:43 UTC	$353	87.50%	47
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$355	87.50%	47
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$356	87.50%	47
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC	$356	87.50%	47

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 3.3%covert 20.3%restricted 6.7%classified 5.0%Covert 1.7%blue 26.7%mil spec 3.3%consumer 3.3%Ancient 0.8%red 3.9%rare 3.3%pink 8.3%violet 13.3%best hit $2,917 (8.20x)