CACHE BACK
A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$2.00
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $1.75 from 68 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.03%
22.6K openings, odds method
Variance
4.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
64.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values68 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22.7K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/cache-back, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $2.00 | 87.50% | 68 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $2.00 | 87.70% | 68 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $2.00 | 87.38% | 68 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $2.00 | 87.63% | 68 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $2.00 | 87.60% | 68 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $2.00 | 87.95% | 68 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $2.00 | 87.28% | 68 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $2.00 | 87.95% | 68 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $2.00 | 88.15% | 68 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $2.00 | 86.99% | 68 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $2.00 | 87.68% | 68 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $2.00 | 87.63% | 68 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $2.00 | 87.39% | 68 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $2.00 | 87.63% | 68 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $2.00 | 87.22% | 68 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $2.00 | 88.06% | 68 |
| 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $2.00 | 86.78% | 68 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $2.00 | 87.52% | 68 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.0%covert 0.0%red 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%blue 14.1%pink 4.2%restricted 15.9%classified 15.5%#d32ee6 2.1%uncommon 5.1%#8847ff 5.7%Mythical 4.2%violet 2.6%Rare 2.0%Restricted 1.0%#5e98d9 0.3%milspec 15.1%Uncommon 7.2%blueLight 4.8%best hit $320 (159.9x)