CACHE BACK JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$57.99

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $50.74 from 68 items

Observed RTP, 30d

79.03%

1,687 openings, odds method

Variance

4.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 13

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

86.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

66.23%±25.46287 openings

7 days

78.91%±11.571,399 openings

30 days

79.03%±10.511,687 openings

since tracking started

79.03%±10.511,687 openings

40.0%66.3%92.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	287	66.23%±25.5	−1.7σ	odds
7d	1,399	78.91%±11.6	−1.5σ	odds
30d	1,687	79.03%±10.5	−1.6σ	odds
All	1,687	79.03%±10.5	−1.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values68 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,699 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby	1 in 26	$595	45.1%	56	65.3	0.86×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 26	$318	24.1%	53	65.3	0.81×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 26	$138	10.5%	77	65.3	1.18×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Buckshot (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 52	$80.14	3.0%	0	32.7	0.00×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Buckshot (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 52	$56.16	2.1%	0	32.7	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 52	$54.96	2.1%	0	32.7	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 52	$53.92	2.0%	0	32.7	0.00×
Souvenir M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · blue	1 in 26	$51.62	3.9%	63	65.3	0.96×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 78	$44.56	1.1%	0	21.8	0.00×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 78	$34.36	0.9%	0	21.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 104	$31.38	0.6%	0	16.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 78	$28.27	0.7%	0	21.8	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 78	$21.04	0.5%	0	21.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 104	$17.60	0.3%	0	16.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 104	$13.14	0.2%	0	16.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 104	$10.77	0.2%	0	16.3	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 104	$5.75	0.1%	0	16.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 78	$5.65	0.1%	0	21.8	0.00×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 78	$5.40	0.1%	0	21.8	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 78	$5.17	0.1%	0	21.8	0.00×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 78	$4.94	0.1%	0	21.8	0.00×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon	1 in 26	$4.76	0.4%	69	65.3	1.06×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 78	$4.66	0.1%	0	21.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 78	$4.21	0.1%	0	21.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 78	$4.02	0.1%	0	21.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 78	$3.96	0.1%	0	21.8	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 26	$2.89	0.2%	73	65.3	1.12×
Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 104	$2.51	0.0%	0	16.3	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 104	$2.17	0.0%	0	16.3	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 104	$2.05	0.0%	0	16.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 130	$1.95	0.0%	0	13.1	0.00×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 26	$1.58	0.1%	62	65.3	0.95×
MP7 \| Special Delivery (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 78	$1.33	0.0%	0	21.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 78	$1.30	0.0%	0	21.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 78	$1.29	0.0%	0	21.8	0.00×
MP7 \| Special Delivery (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 78	$1.27	0.0%	0	21.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 78	$1.25	0.0%	0	21.8	0.00×
MP7 \| Special Delivery (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 78	$1.19	0.0%	0	21.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 78	$1.15	0.0%	0	21.8	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 104	$1.15	0.0%	0	16.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Sleeping Potion (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 78	$1.06	0.0%	0	21.8	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 130	$1.01	0.0%	0	13.1	0.00×
P2000 \| Handgun (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 78	$1.01	0.0%	0	21.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Sleeping Potion (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 78	$0.84	0.0%	0	21.8	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 130	$0.80	0.0%	0	13.1	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 130	$0.80	0.0%	0	13.1	0.00×
M4A4 \| Zubastick (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 130	$0.78	0.0%	0	13.1	0.00×
P2000 \| Handgun (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 78	$0.77	0.0%	0	21.8	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 130	$0.73	0.0%	0	13.1	0.00×
P2000 \| Handgun (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 78	$0.73	0.0%	0	21.8	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 52	$0.71	0.0%	0	32.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted	1 in 104	$0.63	0.0%	0	16.3	0.00×
M249 \| O.S.I.P.R. (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 78	$0.63	0.0%	0	21.8	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 104	$0.58	0.0%	0	16.3	0.00×
P250 \| Re.built (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 52	$0.57	0.0%	0	32.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 104	$0.55	0.0%	0	16.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 104	$0.42	0.0%	0	16.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 52	$0.39	0.0%	0	32.7	0.00×
M249 \| O.S.I.P.R. (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 78	$0.31	0.0%	0	21.8	0.00×
M249 \| O.S.I.P.R. (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 78	$0.28	0.0%	0	21.8	0.00×
M4A4 \| Zubastick (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 130	$0.23	0.0%	0	13.1	0.00×
P250 \| Re.built (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 52	$0.14	0.0%	0	32.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 104	$0.12	0.0%	0	16.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Zubastick (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 130	$0.09	0.0%	0	13.1	0.00×
M4A4 \| Zubastick (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 130	$0.08	0.0%	0	13.1	0.00×
M4A4 \| Zubastick (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 130	$0.08	0.0%	0	13.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Well-Worn)weapon · blueLight	1 in 104	$0.08	0.0%	0	16.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 104	$0.08	0.0%	0	16.3	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/cache-back-joker, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby$59.41$61110.28x6d

★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby$59.41$61110.28x7d

★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · RubyCİĞERCİMEMO$59.41$61110.28x7d

★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby$59.41$61110.28x7d

★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Rubygood$59.41$61110.28x7d

★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby$59.41$61110.28x7d

★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby★ αк ʜ$ ᴇɴᴊᴏʏᴇʀ$59.41$61110.28x7d

★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby$59.41$61110.28x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Tec-9 | Remote Control (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$57.99$2.890.05x26m

M249 | O.S.I.P.R.weapon · blue$57.99$0.410.01x26m

MP7 | Smoking Kills (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon$57.99$4.760.08x26m

P250 | Re.builtweapon · milspecliv$57.99$0.350.01x26m

Souvenir M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · blue$57.99$51.620.89x53m

★ Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert$57.99$3185.48x53m

AK-47 | VariCamo Greyweapon · blueLight$57.99$0.170.00x53m

Tec-9 | Remote Control (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedWuj WodzU$57.99$2.890.05x53m

MP7 | Special Deliveryweapon · violet$57.99$1.260.02x1h

USP-S | Sleeping Potionweapon · violet$57.99$1.050.02x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$57.99	87.50%	68
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$57.93	87.49%	68
10 Nov, 08:21 UTC	$58.24	87.51%	68
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC	$57.81	87.50%	68
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$58.24	87.51%	68
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$58.34	87.50%	68
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$58.57	87.50%	68
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$58.22	87.50%	68
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$58.04	87.50%	68
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$58.70	87.49%	68
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$58.28	87.50%	68
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$58.94	87.50%	68
5 Nov, 10:43 UTC	$59.41	87.49%	68
5 Nov, 04:40 UTC	$58.94	87.50%	68
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$59.41	87.49%	68
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$58.63	87.50%	68

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 3.8%covert 7.7%red 7.7%extraordinary 3.8%blue 12.6%pink 7.7%restricted 13.6%classified 10.3%#d32ee6 1.3%uncommon 5.1%#8847ff 6.5%Mythical 5.1%violet 3.3%Rare 3.2%Restricted 1.0%#5e98d9 1.0%milspec 3.5%Uncommon 1.9%blueLight 1.0%best hit $611 (10.28x)