CIRCUS

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$80.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $70.00 from 44 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.02%

3,131 openings, odds method

Variance

2.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

16.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

68.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

91.22%±14.02387 openings

7 days

86.56%±5.792,353 openings

30 days

89.02%±5.233,131 openings

since tracking started

89.02%±5.233,131 openings

76.5%91.3%106.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	387	91.22%±14.0	+0.6σ	odds
7d	2,353	86.56%±5.79	−0.2σ	odds
30d	3,131	89.02%±5.23	+0.6σ	odds
All	3,131	89.02%±5.23	+0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values44 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,140 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 10,000	$5,959	0.9%	1	0.3	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 3,333	$2,592	1.1%	2	0.9	—
M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,667	$1,167	1.0%	3	1.9	1.59×
★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 1,429	$1,053	1.1%	2	2.2	0.91×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,250	$928	1.1%	2	2.5	0.80×
AWP \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,111	$793	1.0%	3	2.8	1.06×
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 833	$616	1.1%	3	3.8	0.80×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary	1 in 3,333	$563	0.2%	0	0.9	—
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 667	$480	1.0%	5	4.7	1.06×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 21	$252	17.4%	105	152.0	0.69×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Field-Tested)gloves · epic	1 in 73	$196	3.8%	0	43.0	0.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 53	$194	5.2%	72	58.7	1.23×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 92	$156	2.4%	0	34.2	0.00×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 42	$152	5.2%	89	74.7	1.19×
★ Survival Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 41	$150	5.2%	73	75.7	0.96×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 73	$139	2.7%	0	43.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 34	$88.63	3.7%	0	92.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 39	$87.71	3.2%	0	79.8	0.00×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 34	$84.62	3.6%	0	92.6	0.00×
Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 14	$82.27	8.2%	205	218.5	0.94×
UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 23	$79.39	4.8%	162	133.8	1.21×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 43	$74.10	2.4%	0	72.5	0.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · Covert	1 in 23	$65.84	4.2%	122	139.4	0.88×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 40	$65.44	2.3%	0	78.8	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 22	$59.50	3.9%	155	145.4	1.07×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 34	$55.66	2.3%	0	91.4	0.00×
FAMAS \| Afterimage (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 65	$47.89	1.1%	0	48.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 238	$38.48	0.2%	0	13.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 189	$37.67	0.3%	0	16.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 83	$23.61	0.4%	0	37.7	0.00×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 91	$22.39	0.4%	0	34.5	0.00×
FAMAS \| Afterimage (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 21	$21.17	1.5%	0	152.3	0.00×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 58	$16.22	0.4%	0	54.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 13	$15.67	1.8%	264	247.7	1.07×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 47	$15.65	0.5%	0	66.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 47	$15.51	0.5%	0	67.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 44	$15.02	0.5%	0	70.7	0.00×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 49	$14.44	0.4%	0	63.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 56	$13.65	0.4%	0	56.5	0.00×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 43	$13.14	0.4%	0	72.8	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$12.75	0.4%	0	62.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 49	$12.55	0.4%	0	63.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 48	$12.34	0.4%	0	65.3	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 10	$9.38	1.3%	282	299.6	0.94×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/circus, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire★jawaan★$80.00$6,18177.26x7d

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinaryPuzonik$80.00$2,69433.68x6d

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary★jawaan★$80.00$2,69433.68x6d

M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$80.00$1,16714.59x14h

M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertKeevAntonimodeCaTeTo_lt;3$80.00$1,14714.33x6d

M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$80.00$1,14714.33x6d

★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epic$80.00$1,08013.50x5d

★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epic★jawaan★$80.00$1,06713.34x7d

★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$80.00$95811.97x7d

★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$80.00$94711.83x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Black LotusStatTrak · weapon · pink$80.00$17.180.21x1m

AK-47 | Nightwishweapon · red$80.00$82.241.03x1m

M4A4 | Desolate Spaceweapon · pink$80.00$16.660.21x1m

AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New)weapon · MythicalWuj WodzU$80.00$15.670.20x1m

M4A4 | Desolate Spaceweapon · pink$80.00$16.660.21x1m

Glock-18 | Shinobu (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink$80.00$9.380.12x1m

★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$80.00$1521.90x1m

M4A1-S | Leaded Glassweapon · pinkWuj WodzU$80.00$14.090.18x1m

M4A4 | Desolate Spaceweapon · pink$80.00$16.660.21x2m

Galil AR | Phoenix Blacklight (Field-Tested)weapon · violet$80.00$82.271.03x2m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$80.00	87.50%	44
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$80.00	87.22%	44
10 Nov, 08:21 UTC	$80.00	87.06%	44
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$80.00	87.40%	44
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$80.00	87.63%	44
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$80.00	87.40%	44
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$80.00	87.30%	44
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$80.00	87.31%	44
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$80.00	87.11%	44
7 Nov, 11:11 UTC	$80.00	87.40%	44
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$80.00	87.11%	44
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$80.00	86.86%	44
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$80.00	87.77%	44
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$80.00	88.13%	44
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$80.00	87.06%	44
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$80.00	87.06%	44
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$80.00	87.96%	44
3 Nov, 16:38 UTC	$80.00	87.63%	44
3 Nov, 15:55 UTC	$80.00	88.02%	44
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$80.00	87.63%	44
3 Nov, 09:33 UTC	$80.00	88.02%	44
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$80.00	87.63%	44

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 21.5%extraordinary 0.0%epic 1.4%legendary 0.0%gold 2.4%red 8.8%rare 2.5%violet 7.0%#8847ff 4.3%Covert 4.4%classified 15.8%Classified 0.5%pink 18.5%#d32ee6 4.9%Mythical 7.9%best hit $6,181 (77.26x)