CIRCUS JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$636.55
Advertised RTP
90.50%
EV $576.08 from 44 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.50%
372 openings, odds method
Variance
3.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values44 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 394 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/circus-joker, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $637 | 90.50% | 44 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $638 | 90.50% | 44 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $641 | 90.50% | 44 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $635 | 90.50% | 44 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $641 | 90.50% | 44 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $635 | 90.50% | 44 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $639 | 90.50% | 44 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $650 | 90.50% | 44 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $648 | 90.50% | 44 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $653 | 90.50% | 44 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 44.4%extraordinary 3.7%epic 5.6%legendary 1.9%gold 3.7%rare 1.9%red 5.6%violet 3.7%#8847ff 3.7%Covert 3.7%classified 8.5%Classified 0.7%pink 7.4%#d32ee6 1.9%Mythical 3.7%best hit $6,177 (9.46x)