DMG

A case on Casehug (CREATORS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$50.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $43.75 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d

81.97%

3,820 openings, odds method

Variance

5.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 13

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

78.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

94.02%±21.33469 openings

7 days

81.27%±8.643,241 openings

30 days

81.97%±7.983,820 openings

since tracking started

81.97%±7.983,820 openings

72.0%94.0%116.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	469	94.02%±21.3	+0.6σ	odds
7d	3,241	81.27%±8.64	−1.5σ	odds
30d	3,820	81.97%±7.98	−1.4σ	odds
All	3,820	81.97%±7.98	−1.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,825 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,667	$2,201	3.0%	1	2.3	0.44×
Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,250	$1,696	3.1%	1	3.1	0.33×
★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 769	$1,059	3.1%	2	5.0	0.40×
AWP \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 588	$772	3.0%	8	6.5	1.23×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 455	$604	3.0%	13	8.4	1.54×
★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 333	$440	3.0%	10	11.5	0.87×
★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 270	$359	3.0%	20	14.2	1.41×
★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 256	$341	3.0%	19	14.9	1.27×
★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 200	$267	3.0%	20	19.1	1.05×
★ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 185	$246	3.0%	30	20.7	1.45×
M4A1-S \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · epic	1 in 159	$213	3.1%	17	24.1	0.71×
★ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 149	$200	3.1%	24	25.6	0.94×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 26	$177	15.7%	131	148.4	0.88×
★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25	$170	15.7%	111	154.5	0.72×
★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 23	$158	15.7%	130	166.4	0.78×
★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 18	$125	15.7%	270	209.6	1.29×
MP7 \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 37	$8.66	0.5%	97	102.5	0.95×
SCAR-20 \| Fragments (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	34.5%	$0.12	0.1%	1,421	1320.4	1.08×
MAG-7 \| Foresight (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	41.0%	$0.09	0.1%	1,500	1567.9	0.96×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/dmg, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$50.00$2,26945.38x2d

Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted$50.00$1,70534.10x3h

★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epicCj$50.00$1,07421.49x4d

★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epicMarkoś$50.00$1,05921.18x5h

AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covertnohej$50.00$83116.61x7d

AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covertKOD SOUL$50.00$83116.61x8d

AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert$50.00$83116.61x8d

AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covertfifi _lt;3 CS2.ME skins.army$50.00$82116.42x7d

AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert$50.00$81116.23x5d

AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert★jawaan★$50.00$80116.02x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Flip Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covertFilu$ Jr.$50.00$3597.18x11m

MAG-7 | Foresight (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueFilu$ Jr.$50.00$0.090.00x12m

MAG-7 | Foresight (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue$50.00$0.090.00x26m

MAG-7 | Foresight (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueRzygorzutCS2.ME$50.00$0.090.00x26m

★ Shadow Daggers | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$50.00$1773.53x26m

MAG-7 | Foresight (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue$50.00$0.090.00x26m

MAG-7 | Foresight (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueRzygorzutCS2.ME$50.00$0.090.00x26m

SCAR-20 | Fragments (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue$50.00$0.120.00x26m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 20:45 UTC	$50.00	87.50%	19
11 Nov, 14:41 UTC	$50.00	87.50%	19
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$50.00	87.50%	19
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$50.00	87.96%	19
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$50.00	87.50%	19
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$50.00	87.96%	19
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC	$50.00	87.92%	19
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$50.00	87.33%	19
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$50.00	87.93%	19
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$50.00	87.52%	19
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$50.00	88.17%	19
7 Nov, 11:11 UTC	$50.00	87.87%	19
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$50.00	86.98%	19
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$50.00	87.87%	19
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$50.00	87.39%	19
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$50.00	87.64%	19
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$50.00	87.76%	19
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$50.00	87.89%	19
3 Nov, 16:38 UTC	$50.00	87.00%	19
3 Nov, 15:55 UTC	$50.00	87.16%	19
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$50.00	87.00%	19
3 Nov, 09:33 UTC	$50.00	90.77%	19
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$50.00	87.16%	19

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 19.8%restricted 2.8%epic 1.1%legendary 0.2%rare 0.5%blue 75.5%best hit $2,269 (45.38x)