DRAGON CLAW
A case on Casehug (Event), first seen 10 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$50.00
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $43.75 from 50 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.29%
14.9K openings, odds method
Variance
2.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
24.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values50 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15.9K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/dragon-claw, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $50.00 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $50.00 | 87.88% | 50 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $50.00 | 87.94% | 50 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 9.1%gold 0.0%sunny 0.9%legendary 0.0%epic 0.0%red 2.0%violet 18.3%blue 6.4%#4b69ff 1.7%milspec 2.3%Ancient 1.3%rare 13.9%consumer 6.4%uncommon 5.0%restricted 7.5%pink 16.8%classified 8.2%best hit $2,662 (53.23x)