DRAGON CLAW JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 10 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$763.74

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $668.27 from 50 items

Observed RTP, 30d

80.20%

2,126 openings, odds method

Variance

4.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 19

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

79.20%±14.60849 openings

7 days

80.20%±9.152,126 openings

30 days

80.20%±9.152,126 openings

since tracking started

80.20%±9.152,126 openings

64.0%79.3%94.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	849	79.20%±14.6	−1.1σ	odds
7d	2,126	80.20%±9.15	−1.6σ	odds
30d	2,126	80.20%±9.15	−1.6σ	odds
All	2,126	80.20%±9.15	−1.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values50 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,131 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 29	$8,537	44.0%	66	73.5	0.90×
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 58	$4,355	11.2%	0	36.7	0.00×
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 29	$2,233	11.5%	63	73.5	0.86×
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 58	$1,508	3.9%	0	36.7	0.00×
★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · gold · Black Pearl	1 in 29	$1,384	7.1%	79	73.5	1.08×
★ Sport Gloves \| Ultra Violent (Well-Worn)gloves · sunny	1 in 58	$969	2.5%	0	36.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 58	$933	2.4%	0	36.7	0.00×
★ Sport Gloves \| Ultra Violent (Battle-Scarred)gloves · legendary	1 in 58	$776	2.0%	0	36.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 58	$716	1.8%	0	36.7	0.00×
★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 29	$697	3.6%	79	73.5	1.08×
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 29	$521	2.7%	68	73.5	0.93×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 116	$277	0.4%	0	18.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 116	$212	0.3%	0	18.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 116	$210	0.3%	0	18.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 116	$193	0.2%	0	18.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 116	$175	0.2%	0	18.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 116	$155	0.2%	0	18.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 116	$152	0.2%	0	18.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 116	$147	0.2%	0	18.4	0.00×
Nova \| Baroque Orange (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 29	$139	0.7%	79	73.5	1.08×
★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 29	$134	0.7%	64	73.5	0.87×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 58	$90.51	0.2%	0	36.7	0.00×
Nova \| Modern Hunter (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 29	$88.56	0.5%	81	73.5	1.10×
FAMAS \| Sundown (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 29	$83.77	0.4%	69	73.5	0.94×
UMP-45 \| Day Lily (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 58	$76.73	0.2%	0	36.7	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 58	$72.60	0.2%	0	36.7	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Day Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 58	$70.30	0.2%	0	36.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 87	$66.23	0.1%	0	24.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 87	$58.63	0.1%	0	24.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 87	$55.66	0.1%	0	24.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 87	$54.68	0.1%	0	24.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 87	$51.70	0.1%	0	24.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 87	$50.97	0.1%	0	24.5	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Contractor (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 29	$46.88	0.2%	63	73.5	0.86×
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 87	$41.17	0.1%	0	24.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 87	$39.14	0.1%	0	24.5	0.00×
P2000 \| Woodsman (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 58	$36.08	0.1%	0	36.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 29	$31.38	0.2%	64	73.5	0.87×
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon	1 in 87	$30.88	0.1%	0	24.5	0.00×
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 116	$26.89	0.0%	0	18.4	0.00×
P2000 \| Woodsman (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 58	$26.29	0.1%	0	36.8	0.00×
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 116	$25.56	0.0%	0	18.4	0.00×
XM1014 \| Tranquility (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 29	$24.04	0.1%	80	73.5	1.09×
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 116	$23.65	0.0%	0	18.4	0.00×
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 116	$23.30	0.0%	0	18.4	0.00×
Souvenir XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · violet	1 in 29	$23.06	0.1%	64	73.5	0.87×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 29	$20.09	0.1%	0	73.5	0.00×
P90 \| Death Grip (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 29	$18.33	0.1%	82	73.5	1.12×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 29	$15.51	0.1%	0	73.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 29	$15.43	0.1%	0	73.5	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/dragon-claw-joker, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · EmeraldKOD: GRANAT$766$8,56811.18x50s

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · EmeraldKOD: GRANAT$766$8,56811.18x1m

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$766$8,56811.18x58m

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$766$8,56811.18x1h

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · EmeraldM9/BF GW Code : zurys$766$8,56811.18x3h

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$766$8,56811.18x3h

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emeraldsztamaxyz$764$8,53711.18x4h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A4 | 龍王weapon · pinkMalutki Kamilek$766$17.050.02x33s

★ Sport Gloves | Ultra Violentgloves · sunnyMalutki Kamilek$766$8631.13x33s

M4A1-S | Printstreamweapon · redMalutki Kamilek$766$2210.29x33s

AK-47 | Crane Flight (Minimal Wear)weapon · pinkMalutki Kamilek$766$30.830.04x33s

★ Sport Gloves | Ultra Violentgloves · sunnyMalutki Kamilek$766$8631.13x33s

★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · gold · Black Pearl$766$1,4211.85x34s

P90 | Death Grip (Well-Worn)weapon · violet$766$18.440.02x34s

M4A4 | 龍王weapon · pink$766$17.050.02x34s

AUG | Akihabara Acceptweapon · redKOD: GRANAT$766$2,9293.82x34s

Glock-18 | AXIAweapon · pink$766$24.080.03x42s

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$764	87.50%	50
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$761	87.50%	50
10 Nov, 08:21 UTC	$807	88.50%	50

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 29.0%gold 3.4%sunny 5.2%legendary 1.7%epic 3.4%red 2.0%violet 10.3%blue 6.9%#4b69ff 1.7%milspec 1.7%Ancient 1.1%rare 6.9%consumer 3.4%uncommon 2.3%restricted 3.4%pink 13.8%classified 3.4%best hit $8,568 (11.18x)