FARM AWP
A case on Casehug (FARM CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$1.20
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $1.05 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.98%
127K openings, odds method
Variance
44.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 63
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
97.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 128K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $616 | 5.9% | 10 | 12.8 | 0.78× |
| AWP | Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · red | 1 in 270 | $53.63 | 18.9% | 473 | 472.8 | 1.00× |
| AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 208 | $41.83 | 19.1% | 598 | 613.3 | 0.97× |
| AWP | Crakow! (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 1 in 137 | $27.19 | 18.9% | 931 | 932.8 | 1.00× |
| AWP | Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 74 | $14.72 | 18.9% | 1,686 | 1725.0 | 0.98× |
| Galil AR | Control (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 10.4% | $0.57 | 5.6% | 10,059 | 13289.2 | 0.76× |
| Desert Eagle | Calligraffiti (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 11.9% | $0.37 | 4.2% | 12,692 | 15231.5 | 0.83× |
| MP5-SD | Statics (Field-Tested)weapon · blue | 11.9% | $0.37 | 4.2% | 12,012 | 15231.5 | 0.79× |
| USP-S | PC-GRN (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 16.0% | $0.14 | 2.1% | 19,760 | 20381.1 | 0.97× |
| M4A4 | Choppa (Field-Tested)weapon · blue | 18.2% | $0.09 | 1.6% | 24,404 | 23268.9 | 1.05× |
| Negev | Sour Grapes (Field-Tested)weapon · blueLight | 28.7% | $0.02 | 0.5% | 45,156 | 36622.0 | 1.23× |
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/farm-awp, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $1.20 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $1.20 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $1.20 | 87.60% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $1.20 | 86.62% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $1.20 | 87.92% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $1.20 | 86.55% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $1.20 | 87.84% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $1.20 | 88.20% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $1.20 | 86.88% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $1.20 | 87.23% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $1.20 | 86.83% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $1.20 | 85.61% | 11 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $1.20 | 88.33% | 11 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $1.20 | 88.37% | 11 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $1.20 | 87.06% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.5%red 0.4%pink 0.7%classified 1.4%violet 10.4%#4b69ff 27.9%blue 30.1%blueLight 28.7%best hit $642 (535.1x)