FARM AWP JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$78.87
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $69.01 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.21%
4,539 openings, odds method
Variance
4.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,546 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 11 | $620 | 81.7% | 423 | 413.2 | 1.02× |
| AWP | Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · red | 1 in 11 | $53.77 | 7.1% | 412 | 413.3 | 1.00× |
| AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 11 | $42.49 | 5.6% | 409 | 413.3 | 0.99× |
| AWP | Crakow! (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 1 in 11 | $26.74 | 3.5% | 399 | 413.3 | 0.97× |
| AWP | Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 11 | $14.55 | 1.9% | 432 | 413.3 | 1.05× |
| Galil AR | Control (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 1 in 11 | $0.54 | 0.1% | 432 | 413.3 | 1.05× |
| MP5-SD | Statics (Field-Tested)weapon · blue | 1 in 11 | $0.37 | 0.0% | 416 | 413.3 | 1.01× |
| Desert Eagle | Calligraffiti (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 1 in 11 | $0.35 | 0.0% | 402 | 413.3 | 0.97× |
| USP-S | PC-GRN (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 1 in 11 | $0.14 | 0.0% | 391 | 413.3 | 0.95× |
| M4A4 | Choppa (Field-Tested)weapon · blue | 1 in 11 | $0.09 | 0.0% | 422 | 413.3 | 1.02× |
| Negev | Sour Grapes (Field-Tested)weapon · blueLight | 1 in 11 | $0.02 | 0.0% | 408 | 413.3 | 0.99× |
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/farm-awp-joker, 12 Nov, 02:49 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov, 02:49 UTC | $78.87 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $79.17 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $78.47 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $79.17 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $80.07 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $79.07 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $79.85 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $79.07 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $79.12 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $79.74 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $79.12 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $79.88 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $79.74 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $79.87 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $79.88 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $79.87 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $80.09 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $76.80 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $79.80 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $80.93 | 87.50% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 18.2%red 9.1%pink 9.1%classified 9.1%violet 9.1%blue 18.2%#4b69ff 18.2%blueLight 9.1%best hit $642 (7.93x)