FERRO

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$30.00

Advertised RTP

87.47%

EV $26.24 from 65 items

Observed RTP, 30d

83.21%

3,988 openings, odds method

Variance

4.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

11.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

62.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

78.01%±16.32616 openings

7 days

83.42%±6.733,526 openings

30 days

83.21%±6.343,988 openings

since tracking started

83.21%±6.343,988 openings

61.0%78.0%95.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	616	78.01%±16.3	−1.1σ	odds
7d	3,526	83.42%±6.73	−1.2σ	odds
30d	3,988	83.21%±6.34	−1.3σ	odds
All	3,988	83.21%±6.34	−1.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values65 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,994 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 5,000	$1,910	1.5%	2	0.8	—
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$1,616	1.2%	0	0.8	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$1,342	1.5%	1	1.2	0.83×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$1,066	1.2%	0	1.2	0.00×
★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 2,500	$840	1.3%	1	1.6	0.63×
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$756	1.2%	0	1.6	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$395	0.2%	0	0.4	—
★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,111	$385	1.3%	1	3.6	0.28×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$300	0.2%	0	0.8	—
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$280	0.2%	0	0.8	—
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$269	0.3%	0	1.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$261	0.2%	0	0.8	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$256	0.3%	0	1.2	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$242	0.3%	0	1.2	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$237	0.3%	0	1.2	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$224	0.3%	0	1.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$219	0.3%	0	1.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$217	0.3%	0	1.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$207	0.3%	0	1.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$207	0.1%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$193	0.5%	0	2.8	0.00×
FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 556	$184	1.3%	9	7.2	1.25×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 500	$164	1.3%	8	8.0	1.00×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 833	$152	0.7%	0	4.8	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$147	0.1%	0	0.8	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,111	$140	0.5%	0	3.6	0.00×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$132	0.4%	0	2.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$131	0.5%	0	4.0	0.00×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	1 in 233	$112	1.8%	0	17.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 44	$106	9.0%	0	89.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 41	$102	9.4%	0	97.1	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 81	$76.80	3.6%	0	49.5	0.00×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 37	$71.12	7.4%	0	108.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 104	$68.68	2.5%	0	38.3	0.00×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 112	$60.24	2.0%	0	35.5	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 71	$55.28	3.0%	0	56.3	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 68	$54.01	3.0%	0	59.1	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 65	$53.95	3.2%	0	61.9	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 64	$53.49	3.2%	0	62.7	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 58	$51.26	3.4%	0	68.7	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 24	$43.22	6.8%	0	164.2	0.00×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 31	$42.34	5.1%	0	127.4	0.00×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 22	$35.22	6.2%	0	184.1	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 294	$34.75	0.5%	0	13.6	0.00×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$34.18	6.4%	0	194.9	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 526	$15.92	0.1%	0	7.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 227	$8.18	0.1%	0	17.6	0.00×
AWP \| Phobos (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 93	$6.66	0.3%	0	42.7	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 200	$5.69	0.1%	0	20.0	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 93	$5.58	0.2%	0	42.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 36	$5.02	0.5%	0	110.2	0.00×
AWP \| Phobos (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 47	$4.02	0.3%	0	85.1	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 76	$3.00	0.2%	0	52.7	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 38	$2.95	0.3%	0	105.4	0.00×
AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 29	$2.89	0.4%	0	137.8	0.00×
AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 24	$2.52	0.4%	0	165.4	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 41	$2.48	0.2%	0	97.9	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 40	$2.46	0.2%	0	100.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 27	$2.36	0.3%	0	145.4	0.00×
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 11	$2.19	0.7%	0	350.7	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 24	$2.12	0.3%	0	167.7	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 24	$1.29	0.2%	0	167.7	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 24	$1.29	0.2%	0	167.7	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 22	$1.21	0.2%	0	182.9	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 12	$1.03	0.3%	0	338.3	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/ferro, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$30.00$1,91063.68x2d

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$30.00$1,91063.68x3d

★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert4$30.00$1,41247.06x6d

★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert$30.00$84628.19x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A4 | Sheet Lightningweapon · violet$30.00$2.870.10x2m

AWP | Phobosweapon · violet$30.00$3.340.11x2m

USP-S | The Traitorweapon · redWuj WodzU$30.00$40.441.35x2m

USP-S | The Traitorweapon · red$30.00$40.441.35x2m

Desert Eagle | Mulberryweapon · violet$30.00$1.960.07x2m

M4A4 | Sheet Lightningweapon · violetWuj WodzU$30.00$2.870.10x2m

M4A4 | Sheet Lightningweapon · violet$30.00$2.870.10x2m

Desert Eagle | Code Redweapon · red$30.00$55.731.86x2m

USP-S | Kill Confirmedweapon · redWuj WodzU$30.00$74.262.48x2m

AWP | Wildfireweapon · red$30.00$52.501.75x2m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.47%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$30.00	87.47%	65
10 Nov, 08:21 UTC	$30.00	87.59%	65
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$30.00	87.90%	65
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$30.00	88.34%	65
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$30.00	87.59%	65
9 Nov, 02:04 UTC	$30.00	87.45%	65
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$30.00	87.59%	65
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$30.00	87.45%	65
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$30.00	87.86%	65
7 Nov, 05:08 UTC	$30.00	87.00%	65
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$30.00	87.41%	65
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$30.00	86.74%	65
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$30.00	87.56%	65
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$30.00	87.27%	65
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$30.00	87.54%	65
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$30.00	87.56%	65
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$30.00	87.26%	65

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.0%classified 0.0%covert 28.4%Covert 0.2%Ancient 0.4%red 7.8%restricted 15.0%Mythical 9.8%violet 17.0%#8847ff 17.1%uncommon 4.2%best hit $1,910 (63.68x)