FERRO JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$483.50
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $423.06 from 65 items
Observed RTP, 30d
65.00%
29 openings, odds method
Variance
1.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
13.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 29 openings and 3.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values65 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 30 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/ferro-joker, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $484 | 87.50% | 65 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $482 | 87.50% | 65 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $484 | 87.50% | 65 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $483 | 87.50% | 65 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $487 | 87.50% | 65 |
| 2 Nov, 22:28 UTC | $491 | 87.50% | 65 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 4.3%classified 4.3%covert 62.6%Covert 4.3%Ancient 0.9%red 1.7%restricted 4.6%Mythical 5.4%violet 4.3%#8847ff 6.5%uncommon 0.9%best hit $1,652 (3.39x)