FRANIO

A case on Casehug (CREATORS FARM), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$15.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $13.13 from 84 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.94%

7,739 openings, odds method

Variance

3.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

17.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

60.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

92.39%±10.171,181 openings

7 days

88.47%±4.446,308 openings

30 days

87.94%±4.017,739 openings

since tracking started

87.94%±4.017,739 openings

81.5%92.3%103.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,181	92.39%±10.2	+0.9σ	odds
7d	6,308	88.47%±4.44	+0.5σ	odds
30d	7,739	87.94%±4.01	+0.2σ	odds
All	7,739	87.94%±4.01	+0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values84 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,766 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100,000	$4,366	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 50,000	$1,969	0.3%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 14,286	$1,156	0.6%	0	0.5	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 25,000	$444	0.1%	0	0.3	—
★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$371	0.8%	1	2.3	0.43×
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 6,667	$280	0.3%	0	1.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 5,556	$243	0.3%	0	1.4	0.00×
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$225	0.2%	0	0.8	—
M4A1-S \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · epic	1 in 3,333	$225	0.5%	1	2.3	0.43×
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 5,882	$222	0.3%	0	1.3	0.00×
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$212	0.2%	0	0.8	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 6,250	$203	0.2%	0	1.2	0.00×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$172	0.7%	3	3.9	0.77×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 5,882	$150	0.2%	0	1.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$146	0.2%	0	1.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 5,000	$138	0.2%	0	1.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$137	0.2%	0	1.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 4,762	$133	0.2%	0	1.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$131	0.2%	0	1.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 4,762	$126	0.2%	0	1.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 4,348	$122	0.2%	0	1.8	0.00×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 8,333	$105	0.1%	0	0.9	—
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$90.82	0.1%	0	1.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 4,348	$83.95	0.1%	0	1.8	0.00×
AWP \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 4,348	$82.29	0.1%	0	1.8	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,381	$75.96	0.2%	0	3.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,083	$71.51	0.3%	0	3.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,754	$65.16	0.3%	0	4.4	0.00×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 3,226	$63.33	0.1%	0	2.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,222	$59.09	0.2%	0	3.5	0.00×
AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 2,174	$57.30	0.2%	0	3.6	0.00×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 303	$56.04	1.4%	0	25.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 231	$55.23	1.8%	0	33.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 258	$54.89	1.6%	0	30.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 227	$54.85	1.8%	0	34.2	0.00×
AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 230	$53.63	1.8%	0	33.8	0.00×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 241	$49.95	1.6%	0	32.2	0.00×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 241	$49.95	1.6%	0	32.2	0.00×
AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 188	$48.44	2.0%	0	41.4	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · Covert	1 in 187	$46.69	1.9%	0	41.6	0.00×
AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 143	$45.92	2.4%	0	54.2	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 161	$43.39	2.1%	0	48.3	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 210	$40.79	1.5%	0	37.0	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 183	$38.10	1.6%	0	42.4	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 51	$35.89	5.4%	0	152.8	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 44	$33.26	5.8%	0	177.8	0.00×
AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 16	$27.19	13.2%	0	493.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 36	$25.62	5.4%	0	213.7	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 37	$21.79	4.5%	0	212.0	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 35	$21.18	4.7%	0	224.4	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 34	$20.98	4.7%	0	228.7	0.00×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon	1 in 91	$20.19	1.7%	0	85.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 29	$18.57	4.9%	0	269.6	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 151	$17.82	0.9%	0	51.4	0.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 63	$17.32	2.1%	0	122.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 24	$16.80	5.4%	0	329.5	0.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 137	$10.57	0.6%	0	56.6	0.00×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 145	$10.42	0.5%	0	53.4	0.00×
P90 \| Blind Spot (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 118	$10.40	0.7%	0	65.9	0.00×
P90 \| Blind Spot (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 93	$9.00	0.7%	0	83.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 102	$8.61	0.6%	0	76.5	0.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 100	$8.54	0.6%	0	77.5	0.00×
P90 \| Blind Spot (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 79	$8.09	0.8%	0	98.5	0.00×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 91	$7.76	0.7%	0	85.6	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 189	$7.65	0.3%	0	41.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon	1 in 87	$7.54	0.7%	0	89.5	0.00×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 833	$6.03	0.1%	0	9.3	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 92	$4.88	0.4%	0	84.2	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 73	$4.22	0.4%	0	106.2	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 71	$4.16	0.4%	0	108.6	0.00×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 222	$2.63	0.1%	0	34.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 131	$1.95	0.1%	0	59.1	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 125	$1.32	0.1%	0	62.1	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 46	$1.01	0.2%	0	169.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 32	$0.80	0.2%	0	245.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 32	$0.80	0.2%	0	245.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 27	$0.73	0.2%	0	284.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 24	$0.66	0.2%	0	318.5	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 36	$0.61	0.1%	0	213.5	0.00×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 20	$0.58	0.2%	0	391.6	0.00×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 18	$0.54	0.2%	0	439.0	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 21	$0.43	0.2%	0	373.3	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 20	$0.42	0.2%	0	387.7	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 19	$0.41	0.2%	0	401.4	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/franio, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Hydroponicweapon · classifiedDamzon$15.00$1,674111.6x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

SSG 08 | Bloodshotweapon · pink$15.00$21.311.42x1m

AWP | Pink DDPATweapon · restrictedクレツィク CS2.ME$15.00$29.041.94x1m

AK-47 | Point Disarrayweapon · pink$15.00$19.711.31x8m

AWP | Pink DDPATweapon · restricted$15.00$29.041.94x8m

AWP | Pink DDPATweapon · restrictedSoBoL BuK$15.00$29.041.94x8m

AK-47 | Point Disarrayweapon · pink$15.00$19.711.31x11m

MP9 | Food Chainweapon · pink$15.00$6.490.43x11m

M4A1-S | Night Terrorweapon · violet兔子 skins.army$15.00$0.880.06x11m

AK-47 | Neon Riderweapon · redShuriken$15.00$55.943.73x11m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$15.00	87.50%	84
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$15.00	87.72%	84
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$15.00	87.29%	84
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$15.00	87.21%	84
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$15.00	87.50%	84
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$15.00	87.34%	84
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$15.00	87.42%	84
7 Nov, 11:11 UTC	$15.00	87.54%	84
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$15.00	87.48%	84
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$15.00	87.34%	84
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$15.00	87.33%	84
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$15.00	87.33%	84
5 Nov, 10:43 UTC	$15.00	87.35%	84
5 Nov, 04:40 UTC	$15.00	87.37%	84
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$15.00	87.49%	84
3 Nov, 16:38 UTC	$15.00	87.50%	84
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$15.00	87.49%	84
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$15.00	87.62%	84

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 22.2%extraordinary 0.0%covert 1.7%epic 0.0%red 6.7%Ancient 1.2%uncommon 7.7%Covert 0.5%restricted 22.0%pink 6.2%#d32ce6 1.8%Mythical 7.3%violet 21.9%#8847ff 0.8%best hit $1,674 (111.6x)