FRANIO JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$218.27

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $190.99 from 84 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.24%

870 openings, odds method

Variance

7.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 24

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

82.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

82.22%±37.46194 openings

7 days

90.86%±19.30732 openings

30 days

90.24%±17.73870 openings

since tracking started

90.24%±17.73870 openings

44.0%82.3%120.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	194	82.22%±37.5	−0.3σ	odds
7d	732	90.86%±19.3	+0.3σ	odds
30d	870	90.24%±17.7	+0.3σ	odds
All	870	90.24%±17.7	+0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values84 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 888 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 72	$4,514	32.8%	0	12.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 72	$1,969	14.3%	0	12.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 72	$1,156	8.4%	0	12.3	0.00×
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 96	$447	2.4%	0	9.2	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 24	$372	8.1%	39	37.0	1.05×
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 72	$280	2.0%	0	12.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 72	$243	1.8%	0	12.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 72	$222	1.6%	0	12.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · epic	1 in 24	$219	4.8%	27	37.0	0.73×
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 96	$217	1.2%	0	9.3	0.00×
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 96	$217	1.2%	0	9.2	0.00×
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 96	$205	1.1%	0	9.3	0.00×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 24	$178	3.9%	42	37.0	1.14×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 96	$149	0.8%	0	9.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 96	$146	0.8%	0	9.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 96	$141	0.8%	0	9.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 96	$140	0.8%	0	9.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 96	$133	0.7%	0	9.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 96	$131	0.7%	0	9.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 96	$126	0.7%	0	9.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 96	$122	0.7%	0	9.3	0.00×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 120	$107	0.5%	0	7.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 96	$83.83	0.5%	0	9.2	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 96	$81.01	0.4%	0	9.2	0.00×
AWP \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 96	$79.73	0.4%	0	9.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 72	$76.03	0.6%	0	12.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 72	$71.51	0.5%	0	12.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 72	$64.89	0.5%	0	12.3	0.00×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 120	$64.00	0.3%	0	7.4	0.00×
AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 96	$60.57	0.3%	0	9.3	0.00×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 120	$59.78	0.3%	0	7.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 96	$59.09	0.3%	0	9.3	0.00×
AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 96	$55.36	0.3%	0	9.3	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 96	$55.33	0.3%	0	9.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 96	$55.25	0.3%	0	9.3	0.00×
AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 96	$54.83	0.3%	0	9.3	0.00×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 120	$54.76	0.2%	0	7.4	0.00×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 120	$54.30	0.2%	0	7.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 96	$53.93	0.3%	0	9.3	0.00×
AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 48	$45.92	0.5%	0	18.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · Covert	1 in 96	$43.36	0.2%	0	9.3	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 96	$42.24	0.2%	0	9.3	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 96	$40.79	0.2%	0	9.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 96	$38.14	0.2%	0	9.3	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 96	$36.15	0.2%	0	9.3	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 96	$34.41	0.2%	0	9.3	0.00×
AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 48	$27.19	0.3%	0	18.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 72	$25.37	0.2%	0	12.3	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 72	$23.71	0.2%	0	12.3	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 72	$21.56	0.2%	0	12.3	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 72	$21.18	0.2%	0	12.3	0.00×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon	1 in 96	$20.24	0.1%	0	9.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 72	$18.34	0.1%	0	12.3	0.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 96	$17.99	0.1%	0	9.2	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 120	$17.82	0.1%	0	7.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 72	$15.76	0.1%	0	12.3	0.00×
P90 \| Blind Spot (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 72	$10.40	0.1%	0	12.3	0.00×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 96	$10.21	0.1%	0	9.3	0.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 96	$10.03	0.1%	0	9.3	0.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 96	$8.61	0.0%	0	9.3	0.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 96	$8.58	0.0%	0	9.3	0.00×
P90 \| Blind Spot (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 72	$8.09	0.1%	0	12.3	0.00×
P90 \| Blind Spot (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 72	$8.05	0.1%	0	12.3	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 120	$7.74	0.0%	0	7.4	0.00×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 96	$7.54	0.0%	0	9.3	0.00×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon	1 in 96	$7.48	0.0%	0	9.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 120	$5.51	0.0%	0	7.4	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 120	$4.93	0.0%	0	7.4	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 120	$4.24	0.0%	0	7.4	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 120	$4.19	0.0%	0	7.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 120	$2.60	0.0%	0	7.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 120	$2.04	0.0%	0	7.4	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 120	$1.35	0.0%	0	7.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 120	$1.03	0.0%	0	7.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 120	$0.81	0.0%	0	7.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 120	$0.80	0.0%	0	7.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 120	$0.70	0.0%	0	7.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 120	$0.66	0.0%	0	7.4	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 120	$0.61	0.0%	0	7.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 120	$0.54	0.0%	0	7.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 120	$0.44	0.0%	0	7.4	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 120	$0.43	0.0%	0	7.4	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 120	$0.42	0.0%	0	7.4	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 120	$0.41	0.0%	0	7.4	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/franio-joker, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Hydroponicweapon · classified$221$2,59111.75x2d

AK-47 | Hydroponicweapon · classifiedfeinzy$222$2,58811.65x6d

AK-47 | Hydroponicweapon · classifiedKOD SOUL$222$2,58811.65x6d

AK-47 | Hydroponicweapon · classified$221$2,58111.68x1d

AK-47 | Hydroponicweapon · classified$221$2,57711.66x6d

AK-47 | Hydroponicweapon · classifiedfeinzy$221$2,57711.66x7d

AK-47 | Hydroponicweapon · classifiedDeath13$221$2,57711.66x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Searing RageStatTrak · weapon · pink$216$11.260.05x2h

AK-47 | Case Hardenedweapon · pink$216$2481.15x2h

M4A1-S | Night Terrorweapon · violet$216$1.060.00x2h

AK-47 | The Empressweapon · redChrasťoušekS$216$1290.60x2h

★ Flip Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$216$3711.72x2h

FAMAS | Bad Tripweapon · red$216$64.890.30x2h

AK-47 | Neon Revolutionweapon · red$216$1420.66x2h

P90 | Blind Spotweapon · restrictedDeath13$216$9.160.04x2h

AK-47 | Hydroponicweapon · classified$216$2,49611.57x2h

AK-47 | Neon Revolutionweapon · red$216$1420.66x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$218	87.50%	84
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC	$218	87.50%	84
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$221	87.50%	84
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$221	87.50%	84
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$221	87.50%	84
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$221	87.50%	84
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$219	87.50%	84
7 Nov, 11:11 UTC	$219	87.50%	84
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$220	87.50%	84
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$219	87.50%	84
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$218	87.50%	84
5 Nov, 10:43 UTC	$222	87.50%	84
5 Nov, 04:40 UTC	$218	87.50%	84
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$221	87.50%	84
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC	$223	87.50%	84
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$224	87.50%	84

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 19.2%extraordinary 4.2%covert 24.0%epic 4.2%red 10.8%Ancient 4.2%uncommon 4.6%restricted 8.9%Covert 1.0%pink 5.8%Mythical 4.7%#d32ce6 2.1%violet 5.6%#8847ff 0.8%best hit $2,591 (11.75x)