FROZEN SOUL

A case on Casehug (HALLOWEEN), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$120.00

Advertised RTP

87.51%

EV $105.01 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.09%

13.7K openings, odds method

Variance

1.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

33.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

66.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

86.10%±2.2511.1K openings

30 days

86.09%±2.0213.7K openings

since tracking started

86.09%±2.0213.7K openings

83.0%86.0%89.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	11.1K	86.10%±2.25	−1.4σ	odds
30d	13.7K	86.09%±2.02	−1.6σ	odds
All	13.7K	86.09%±2.02	−1.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13.7K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 50,000	$14.8K	0.3%	0	0.3	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 33,333	$9,405	0.3%	0	0.4	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary	1 in 100,000	$6,601	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary	1 in 100,000	$4,161	0.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100,000	$3,805	0.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 3,333	$3,641	1.0%	1	4.1	0.24×
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 50,000	$2,685	0.1%	0	0.3	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,250	$1,476	1.1%	8	11.0	0.73×
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 1,250	$1,475	1.1%	8	11.0	0.73×
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 769	$916	1.1%	14	17.9	0.78×
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 667	$804	1.1%	17	20.6	0.83×
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 455	$533	1.1%	26	30.2	0.86×
★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 51	$361	6.7%	269	269.1	1.00×
Glock-18 \| Ghost Protocol (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 49	$346	6.7%	286	280.1	1.02×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 24	$160	6.3%	0	565.8	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 22	$153	6.6%	0	620.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 21	$148	6.8%	0	668.7	0.00×
★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · sunny	15.5%	$134	19.7%	2,129	2127.1	1.00×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Stalker (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · red	1 in 13	$77.74	5.6%	1,019	1038.1	0.98×
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 54	$73.36	1.3%	0	255.4	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 54	$73.23	1.3%	0	255.4	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 49	$68.21	1.3%	0	282.9	0.00×
★ Ursus Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 12	$67.57	5.2%	1,011	1101.3	0.92×
Galil AR \| Shattered (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 12	$65.88	5.1%	1,111	1110.9	1.00×
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 44	$63.20	1.4%	0	309.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Serum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 12	$59.91	4.8%	1,165	1156.2	1.01×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 24	$56.95	2.3%	0	582.2	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 11	$54.96	4.6%	1,275	1201.5	1.06×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 23	$54.88	2.3%	0	609.7	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Black Limba (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 11	$54.54	4.5%	1,131	1201.5	0.94×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/frozen-soul, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyWołek$120$3,64130.34x1d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$120$1,52812.73x7d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$120$1,51312.61x6d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire愛$120$1,51312.61x6d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$120$1,51312.61x6d

AUG | Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$120$1,50912.58x4d

AUG | Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertGaLaS Kincstár$120$1,50812.56x5d

AUG | Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertᴋᴀᴍɪʟᴇᴋ SKINS$120$1,50812.56x5d

AUG | Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$120$1,50012.50x2d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphirevyseer$120$1,49312.44x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Survival Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · sunny$120$1341.11x1d

M4A1-S | Vaporwaveweapon · redHyeXX$120$55.890.47x1d

USP-S | Serum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$120$59.910.50x1d

Five-SeveN | Angry Mobweapon · redGUSTLIK$120$69.160.58x1d

M4A1-S | Hyper Beastweapon · red$120$1531.28x1d

Galil AR | Shattered (Factory New)weapon · blue$120$65.880.55x1d

Five-SeveN | Angry Mobweapon · redGUSTLIK$120$69.160.58x1d

Five-SeveN | Angry Mobweapon · redmejdejxd 20:30$120$69.160.58x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.51%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$120	87.51%	30
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$120	87.77%	30
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$120	87.73%	30
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$120	87.90%	30
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$120	87.61%	30
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$120	87.81%	30
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$120	87.52%	30
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$120	87.91%	30
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$120	87.21%	30
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$120	88.18%	30
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$120	87.87%	30
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$120	88.18%	30
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$120	87.82%	30
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$120	87.60%	30

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 40.8%legendary 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%rare 4.4%red 14.0%sunny 15.5%blue 16.8%classified 8.4%best hit $3,641 (30.34x)