FULL MOON

A case on Casehug (Event), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$50.00

Advertised RTP

87.44%

EV $43.72 from 46 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.76%

40.6K openings, odds method

Variance

2.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

25.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

69.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

86.78%±1.6030K openings

30 days

86.76%±1.3840.6K openings

since tracking started

86.76%±1.3840.6K openings

84.5%86.8%89.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	30K	86.78%±1.60	−1.1σ	odds
30d	40.6K	86.76%±1.38	−1.4σ	odds
All	40.6K	86.76%±1.38	−1.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values46 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 40.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$8,950	0.2%	0	0.4	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$8,055	0.2%	0	0.4	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$6,395	0.1%	0	0.4	—
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 14,286	$3,641	0.6%	0	2.9	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 10,000	$1,703	0.4%	2	4.1	0.49×
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$1,347	0.2%	0	2.0	0.00×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 5,000	$1,114	0.5%	10	8.2	1.22×
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 5,000	$947	0.4%	11	8.2	1.34×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1	1 in 3,333	$762	0.5%	13	12.3	1.06×
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$750	0.3%	0	6.1	0.00×
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 2,000	$578	0.7%	20	20.5	0.98×
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$558	0.1%	0	4.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$480	0.1%	0	4.1	0.00×
★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · gold · Sapphire	1 in 2,500	$403	0.4%	22	16.4	1.34×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)weapon · red · Emerald	1 in 10,000	$304	0.1%	0	4.1	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Emerald)weapon · red · Emerald	1 in 5,000	$242	0.1%	0	8.2	0.00×
★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 196	$201	2.3%	185	208.7	0.89×
P90 \| Run and Hide (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 85	$158	4.2%	428	478.7	0.89×
MAC-10 \| Copper Borre (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 74	$136	4.2%	590	556.4	1.06×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 370	$133	0.8%	0	110.5	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 139	$91.48	1.5%	0	294.6	0.00×
Nova \| Modern Hunter (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 34	$88.57	6.0%	1,027	1202.9	0.85×
FAMAS \| Sundown (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 32	$84.07	6.0%	1,214	1268.3	0.96×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Stalker (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · red	1 in 30	$77.74	5.9%	1,340	1366.5	0.98×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 76	$71.94	2.2%	0	536.0	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 75	$68.51	2.1%	0	544.2	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Bone Pile (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 24	$64.75	6.2%	1,730	1706.1	1.01×
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 172	$57.24	0.8%	0	237.3	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$55.63	2.6%	0	822.4	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 44	$54.96	2.8%	0	924.7	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Black Limba (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 20	$54.54	6.2%	1,948	2025.2	0.96×
Five-SeveN \| Contractor (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 13	$46.56	8.4%	3,232	3224.0	1.00×
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 68	$44.53	1.5%	0	597.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 48	$34.75	1.7%	0	855.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 45	$33.46	1.7%	0	912.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 43	$32.22	1.7%	0	941.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 40	$30.23	1.7%	0	1026.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 39	$29.18	1.7%	0	1055.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 38	$29.04	1.8%	0	1084.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 38	$28.92	1.8%	0	1084.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 41	$28.03	1.6%	0	998.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 32	$23.59	1.7%	0	1284.7	0.00×
Souvenir XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · violet	10.5%	$22.92	5.5%	4,425	4279.6	1.03×
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 29	$22.32	1.7%	0	1399.3	0.00×
P90 \| Death Grip (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	11.4%	$18.38	4.8%	4,629	4680.6	0.99×
M249 \| Contrast Spray (Factory New)weapon · gray	12.5%	$14.78	4.2%	5,070	5106.1	0.99×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/full-moon, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$50.00$1,68133.62x2d

★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · EmeraldDing Dong _lt;3$50.00$1,66833.35x1d

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubydiscoStar$50.00$1,11722.34x6d

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$50.00$1,11422.28x5d

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubySzoke97$50.00$1,11422.28x6d

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyDeadGamer$50.00$1,11122.22x8d

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$50.00$1,10922.18x4d

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$50.00$1,10022.00x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

FAMAS | Sundown (Field-Tested)weapon · blue$50.00$84.071.68x1d

AK-47 | Orbit Mk01weapon · violet$50.00$32.550.65x1d

Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · violetbom$50.00$22.920.46x1d

M4A1-S | Fatal Glitchweapon · pink$50.00$26.300.53x1d

Dual Berettas | Black Limba (Factory New)weapon · blue$50.00$54.541.09x1d

M4A1-S | Fatal Glitchweapon · pink$50.00$26.300.53x1d

Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · violetWhy Always ME!$50.00$22.920.46x1d

Nova | Modern Hunter (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue$50.00$88.571.77x1d

M4A1-S | Atomic Alloyweapon · pink$50.00$31.470.63x1d

P90 | Death Grip (Well-Worn)weapon · violet$50.00$18.380.37x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.44%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$50.00	87.44%	46
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$50.00	87.60%	46
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$50.00	87.74%	46
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$50.00	87.64%	46
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$50.00	87.72%	46
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$50.00	87.50%	46
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$50.00	87.77%	46
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$50.00	87.75%	46
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$50.00	87.78%	46
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$50.00	87.47%	46
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$50.00	87.90%	46
3 Nov, 16:38 UTC	$50.00	87.98%	46
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$50.00	87.72%	46
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$50.00	87.66%	46

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 4.5%gold 0.1%red 3.4%pink 7.3%blue 12.3%classified 16.8%mil spec 4.2%consumer 7.9%restricted 6.6%violet 24.4%gray 12.5%best hit $1,681 (33.62x)