FULL MOON JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$821.38
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $718.71 from 46 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.00%
3,265 openings, odds method
Variance
3.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values46 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,531 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/full-moon-joker, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $821 | 87.50% | 46 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $814 | 87.50% | 46 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $821 | 87.50% | 46 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $819 | 87.50% | 46 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $823 | 87.50% | 46 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $823 | 87.50% | 46 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $825 | 87.50% | 46 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $823 | 87.50% | 46 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $825 | 87.50% | 46 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $825 | 87.50% | 46 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $826 | 87.50% | 46 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $826 | 87.50% | 46 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $825 | 87.50% | 46 |
| 4 Nov, 04:46 UTC | $824 | 87.50% | 46 |
| 3 Nov, 02:07 UTC | $825 | 87.50% | 46 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 33.3%gold 7.4%red 7.4%pink 6.5%blue 14.8%classified 8.3%mil spec 3.7%consumer 3.7%restricted 2.8%violet 8.3%gray 3.7%best hit $7,909 (9.61x)