GAME ON

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$4.50

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $3.94 from 26 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.99%

9,411 openings, odds method

Variance

3.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

65.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

87.27%±9.561,349 openings

7 days

86.08%±3.718,132 openings

30 days

84.99%±3.429,411 openings

since tracking started

84.99%±3.429,411 openings

77.0%87.3%97.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,349	87.27%±9.56	−0.1σ	odds
7d	8,132	86.08%±3.71	−0.8σ	odds
30d	9,411	84.99%±3.42	−1.5σ	odds
All	9,411	84.99%±3.42	−1.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,434 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)weapon · red · Emerald	1 in 4,348	$306	1.8%	1	2.2	0.46×
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 2,273	$153	1.7%	4	4.2	0.96×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,136	$75.96	1.7%	4	8.3	0.48×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 962	$64.37	1.7%	8	9.8	0.82×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 826	$54.85	1.7%	13	11.4	1.14×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 820	$54.68	1.7%	7	11.5	0.61×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 680	$45.37	1.7%	8	13.9	0.58×
AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 667	$44.35	1.7%	13	14.2	0.92×
AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 917	$27.19	0.8%	0	10.3	0.00×
AWP \| Crakow! (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 595	$21.89	0.9%	0	15.8	0.00×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 18	$12.81	18.4%	484	534.9	0.90×
Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 31	$9.38	7.7%	289	306.5	0.94×
Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 24	$7.36	7.7%	364	390.6	0.93×
SSG 08 \| Rapid Transit (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 24	$7.24	7.7%	361	397.0	0.91×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 21	$5.56	6.8%	549	453.3	1.21×
M4A1-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 17	$4.59	6.8%	675	549.2	1.23×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 17	$4.57	6.8%	574	551.5	1.04×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Well-Worn)weapon · Mythical	1 in 13	$3.92	7.5%	661	708.9	0.93×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$3.66	7.2%	703	730.5	0.96×
P250 \| Inferno (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	12.7%	$1.06	3.4%	1,184	1199.2	0.99×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	13.6%	$0.90	3.1%	1,292	1280.3	1.01×
Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 84	$0.67	0.2%	0	112.4	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 56	$0.50	0.2%	0	169.3	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 17	$0.21	0.3%	0	570.2	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 15	$0.20	0.3%	0	610.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 12	$0.17	0.4%	0	768.4	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/game-on, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)weapon · red · Emerald$4.50$30667.93x20h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Desert Eagle | Mint Fanweapon · blueNRForceTomi$4.50$0.240.05xnow

P250 | Inferno (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical$4.50$1.060.24x25s

AWP | Crakow!weapon · pink$4.50$23.985.33x25s

P250 | Inferno (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical$4.50$1.060.24x25s

Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythicalbaran - TimingisALL skins.army$4.50$0.900.20x25s

AK-47 | Safety Net (Well-Worn)weapon · MythicalGojo$4.50$3.920.87x2m

USP-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$4.50$3.660.81x2m

SSG 08 | Rapid Transit (Factory New)weapon · violetKomincSKINS.*********$4.50$7.241.61x2m

Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical$4.50$0.900.20x5m

P250 | Inferno (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical$4.50$1.060.24x5m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$4.50	87.50%	26
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$4.50	87.79%	26
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$4.50	87.77%	26
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$4.50	87.57%	26
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$4.50	87.61%	26
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$4.50	87.58%	26
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$4.50	87.37%	26
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$4.50	87.58%	26
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$4.50	87.85%	26
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$4.50	87.71%	26
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$4.50	87.32%	26
5 Nov, 10:43 UTC	$4.50	87.50%	26
5 Nov, 04:40 UTC	$4.50	87.32%	26
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$4.50	87.66%	26
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$4.50	87.03%	26
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$4.50	87.66%	26
3 Nov, 15:55 UTC	$4.50	87.26%	26
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$4.50	87.47%	26

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedred 0.0%Legendary 4.8%covert 0.4%Ancient 0.1%classified 0.1%pink 9.2%rare 0.2%uncommon 5.7%#8847ff 10.0%violet 4.2%Mythical 33.8%restricted 7.7%blue 21.9%Rare 1.8%best hit $306 (67.93x)