GAME ON JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$48.14

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $42.12 from 26 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.84%

916 openings, odds method

Variance

2.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 11

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

71.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

94.58%±19.71207 openings

7 days

86.04%±9.66847 openings

30 days

86.84%±9.28916 openings

since tracking started

86.84%±9.28916 openings

74.0%94.5%115.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	207	94.58%±19.7	+0.7σ	odds
7d	847	86.04%±9.66	−0.3σ	odds
30d	916	86.84%±9.28	−0.1σ	odds
All	916	86.84%±9.28	−0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 994 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)weapon · red · Emerald	1 in 21	$306	34.6%	50	47.3	1.06×
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 21	$153	17.3%	57	47.3	1.20×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 21	$75.96	8.6%	26	47.3	0.55×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 21	$64.37	7.3%	43	47.3	0.91×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 21	$54.85	6.2%	40	47.3	0.85×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 21	$54.68	6.2%	48	47.3	1.01×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 21	$45.37	5.1%	53	47.3	1.12×
AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 21	$44.35	5.0%	46	47.3	0.97×
AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 42	$27.19	1.5%	0	23.7	0.00×
AWP \| Crakow! (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 42	$21.89	1.2%	0	23.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 21	$12.81	1.4%	46	47.3	0.97×
Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 21	$9.38	1.1%	49	47.3	1.04×
Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 21	$7.36	0.8%	43	47.3	0.91×
SSG 08 \| Rapid Transit (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 21	$7.24	0.8%	56	47.3	1.18×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 21	$5.56	0.6%	43	47.3	0.91×
M4A1-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 21	$4.59	0.5%	52	47.3	1.10×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 21	$4.57	0.5%	62	47.3	1.31×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Well-Worn)weapon · Mythical	1 in 21	$3.92	0.4%	51	47.3	1.08×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 21	$3.66	0.4%	37	47.3	0.78×
P250 \| Inferno (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 21	$1.06	0.1%	48	47.3	1.01×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 21	$0.90	0.1%	56	47.3	1.18×
Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 105	$0.67	0.0%	0	9.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 105	$0.50	0.0%	0	9.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 105	$0.21	0.0%	0	9.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 105	$0.20	0.0%	0	9.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 105	$0.17	0.0%	0	9.5	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/game-on-joker, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Safety Net (Well-Worn)weapon · Mythical$47.67$3.900.08x1m

AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$47.67$56.501.19x1m

AK-47 | Safety Net (Well-Worn)weapon · Mythical$47.67$3.900.08x1m

AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendaryziomek$47.67$5.390.11x1m

SSG 08 | Rapid Transit (Factory New)weapon · violet$47.67$7.070.15x1m

M4A1-S | Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$47.67$76.151.60x1m

M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink$47.67$4.760.10x1m

M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pinkziomek$47.67$4.760.10x1m

AWP | Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$47.67$43.610.91x1m

M4A1-S | Control Panel (Factory New)weapon · Legendary$47.67$1453.05x1m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$48.14	87.50%	26
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$48.12	87.51%	26
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$48.00	87.50%	26
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC	$47.74	87.50%	26
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$48.00	87.50%	26
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$48.90	87.51%	26
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$48.27	87.50%	26
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$48.09	87.51%	26
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$48.56	87.50%	26
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$48.36	87.51%	26
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$47.99	87.51%	26
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$47.97	87.50%	26
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$48.56	87.50%	26
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$48.54	87.49%	26
5 Nov, 10:43 UTC	$47.42	87.50%	26
5 Nov, 04:40 UTC	$48.83	87.51%	26
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$47.52	87.50%	26
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$48.83	87.51%	26

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedred 4.8%Legendary 9.5%covert 19.0%Ancient 4.8%classified 4.8%pink 11.9%rare 2.4%uncommon 4.8%#8847ff 9.5%violet 4.8%Mythical 14.3%restricted 4.8%blue 3.8%Rare 1.0%best hit —