GOLDERRA

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$26.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $22.75 from 56 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.12%

6,048 openings, odds method

Variance

6.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 11

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

91.95%±19.98705 openings

7 days

89.80%±8.963,558 openings

30 days

84.12%±6.406,048 openings

since tracking started

84.12%±6.406,048 openings

71.5%92.0%112.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	705	91.95%±20.0	+0.4σ	odds
7d	3,558	89.80%±8.96	+0.5σ	odds
30d	6,048	84.12%±6.40	−1.0σ	odds
All	6,048	84.12%±6.40	−1.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values56 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,178 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$1,592	3.5%	7	3.1	2.27×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$826	1.1%	0	1.9	0.00×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$787	1.0%	0	1.9	0.00×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$720	0.9%	0	1.9	0.00×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 2,500	$719	1.3%	0	2.5	0.00×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 3,333	$680	0.9%	0	1.9	0.00×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$670	0.9%	0	1.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 833	$662	3.5%	3	7.4	0.40×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 3,333	$658	0.9%	0	1.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$410	0.4%	0	1.2	0.00×
★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$329	1.4%	0	6.2	0.00×
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 909	$315	1.5%	0	6.8	0.00×
★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 323	$258	3.5%	18	19.2	0.94×
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Battle-Scarred)gloves · rare	1 in 526	$244	2.0%	0	11.7	0.00×
★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Battle-Scarred)gloves · sunny	1 in 476	$228	2.1%	0	13.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,250	$217	0.8%	0	4.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 714	$166	1.0%	0	8.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 833	$156	0.8%	0	7.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 714	$148	0.9%	0	8.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 714	$146	0.9%	0	8.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 667	$139	0.9%	0	9.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 714	$137	0.8%	0	8.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 667	$131	0.9%	0	9.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 625	$126	0.9%	0	9.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 588	$122	0.9%	0	10.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 385	$121	1.4%	0	16.1	0.00×
USP-S \| Serum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 21	$59.73	12.6%	227	296.5	0.77×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 63	$57.05	4.0%	0	98.8	0.00×
P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$56.24	12.6%	276	315.1	0.88×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 56	$54.34	4.2%	0	109.4	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 53	$52.36	4.4%	0	117.4	0.00×
FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 56	$49.23	3.8%	0	109.4	0.00×
FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$46.07	4.1%	0	124.8	0.00×
FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 37	$39.94	4.7%	0	165.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 61	$16.28	1.2%	0	100.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 147	$13.57	0.4%	0	42.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 73	$8.90	0.5%	0	84.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 69	$7.97	0.5%	0	89.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 61	$6.78	0.5%	0	101.3	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 53	$6.73	0.6%	0	116.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 41	$5.88	0.6%	0	151.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 38	$5.56	0.6%	0	163.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 37	$5.12	0.6%	0	165.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 37	$5.10	0.6%	0	166.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 35	$4.99	0.6%	0	177.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 32	$4.94	0.7%	0	192.8	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 34	$4.90	0.6%	0	182.3	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 23	$4.87	0.9%	0	268.1	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 32	$4.61	0.6%	0	190.9	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 30	$4.45	0.7%	0	208.2	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 31	$4.21	0.6%	0	197.7	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 29	$4.02	0.6%	0	210.7	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 29	$3.96	0.6%	0	215.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 40	$3.95	0.4%	0	156.3	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 12	$3.06	1.1%	0	514.0	0.00×
M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	15.6%	$1.03	0.7%	0	962.5	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/golderra, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classifiedsydneyy olise$26.00$1,64463.22x6d

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified$26.00$1,62862.61x1d

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classifiedkonczyk skins.army$26.00$1,62262.38x1d

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classifiedTPK.$26.00$1,62062.31x3d

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classifiedExa$26.00$1,62062.31x3d

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classifiedKrisZach$26.00$1,62062.31x3d

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classifiedXITO$26.00$1,61662.14x15h

★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronicknife · sunny$26.00$77629.84x14h

★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronicknife · sunny$26.00$77529.81x4d

★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronicknife · sunny$26.00$77229.67x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Black Lotusweapon · pinkWIĘCEJ SPRZĘTU NIŻ TALENTU?$26.00$5.900.23x7m

M4A1-S | Black Lotusweapon · pinkkaCzoR_kill4Fun$26.00$5.900.23x7m

AK-47 | Vulcanweapon · redGilathiss$26.00$1616.18x15m

MAC-10 | Saibā Oniweapon · violetGilathiss$26.00$3.680.14x15m

M4A4 | Etch Lordweapon · violetGilathiss$26.00$1.440.06x15m

M4A1-S | Black Lotusweapon · pinkGilathiss$26.00$5.900.23x15m

AK-47 | Vulcanweapon · redGilathiss$26.00$1616.18x15m

MAC-10 | Saibā Oniweapon · violetGilathiss$26.00$3.680.14x15m

M4A1-S | Black Lotusweapon · pinkGilathiss$26.00$5.900.23x16m

M4A4 | Etch Lordweapon · violetGilathiss$26.00$1.440.06x16m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$26.00	87.50%	56
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$26.00	88.23%	56
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC	$26.00	87.67%	56
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$26.00	87.98%	56
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$26.00	87.62%	56
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$26.00	87.98%	56
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$26.00	87.74%	56
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$26.00	87.78%	56
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$26.00	87.47%	56
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$26.00	87.42%	56
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$26.00	87.55%	56
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$26.00	87.04%	56
5 Nov, 10:43 UTC	$26.00	87.84%	56
5 Nov, 04:40 UTC	$26.00	87.35%	56
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$26.00	87.26%	56
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$26.00	87.79%	56
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$26.00	87.35%	56
3 Nov, 09:33 UTC	$26.00	87.19%	56
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$26.00	87.63%	56

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 18.0%covert 7.4%gold 0.1%extraordinary 0.2%rare 0.2%sunny 0.2%pink 16.5%Legendary 14.0%Classified 6.6%#d32ee6 6.1%violet 22.4%Mythical 8.3%best hit $1,644 (63.22x)