GUARD

A case on Casehug (BATTLE), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$8.50

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $7.44 from 91 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.59%

21.2K openings, odds method

Variance

1.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

67.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

88.46%±4.862,643 openings

7 days

87.03%±1.8118.1K openings

30 days

87.59%±1.6621.2K openings

since tracking started

87.59%±1.6621.2K openings

83.0%88.5%94.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2,643	88.46%±4.86	+0.4σ	odds
7d	18.1K	87.03%±1.81	−0.5σ	odds
30d	21.2K	87.59%±1.66	+0.1σ	odds
All	21.2K	87.59%±1.66	+0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values91 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 21.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 33,333	$697	0.3%	0	0.6	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 33,333	$580	0.2%	0	0.6	—
★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 33,333	$446	0.2%	0	0.6	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 25,000	$426	0.2%	1	0.8	—
★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$340	0.2%	0	0.8	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$277	0.2%	2	1.1	1.88×
★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 16,667	$229	0.2%	1	1.3	0.79×
★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 14,286	$200	0.2%	2	1.5	1.35×
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 14,286	$196	0.2%	0	1.5	0.00×
★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 14,286	$196	0.2%	3	1.5	2.02×
★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 14,286	$195	0.2%	2	1.5	1.35×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 12,500	$172	0.2%	6	1.7	3.53×
★ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 12,500	$164	0.2%	0	1.7	0.00×
★ Nomad Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 11,111	$150	0.2%	0	1.9	0.00×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 11,111	$146	0.2%	1	1.9	0.52×
★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$125	0.2%	1	2.1	0.47×
★ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$119	0.2%	0	2.1	0.00×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Lt. Commander (Field-Tested)gloves · sunny	1 in 9,091	$116	0.2%	3	2.3	1.29×
★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 9,091	$114	0.2%	0	2.3	0.00×
AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$111	0.2%	1	2.3	0.43×
★ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 9,091	$108	0.2%	1	2.3	0.43×
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$102	0.2%	0	2.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 7,692	$93.57	0.2%	1	2.8	0.36×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 7,692	$90.51	0.2%	4	2.8	1.45×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 7,143	$87.71	0.2%	3	3.0	1.01×
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 6,667	$79.28	0.2%	2	3.2	0.63×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$75.96	0.2%	2	3.4	0.59×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$75.90	0.2%	1	3.4	0.29×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$74.10	0.2%	4	3.4	1.18×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 5,556	$67.12	0.2%	5	3.8	1.31×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 5,556	$66.23	0.2%	7	3.8	1.83×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$63.82	0.2%	3	4.0	0.74×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$60.22	0.2%	2	4.2	0.47×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 5,000	$58.20	0.2%	5	4.2	1.18×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 4,762	$55.72	0.2%	6	4.5	1.35×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 4,545	$54.89	0.2%	3	4.7	0.64×
★ Kukri Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 4,348	$52.17	0.2%	3	4.9	0.61×
USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 4,000	$47.11	0.2%	7	5.3	1.32×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 3,846	$45.37	0.2%	5	5.5	0.91×
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 3,571	$41.17	0.2%	7	5.9	1.18×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 3,448	$41.03	0.2%	7	6.2	1.14×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 3,448	$40.79	0.2%	5	6.2	0.81×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 3,333	$38.37	0.2%	2	6.4	0.31×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 3,226	$38.14	0.2%	5	6.6	0.76×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 3,226	$38.08	0.2%	4	6.6	0.61×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 3,226	$37.36	0.2%	3	6.6	0.46×
★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,941	$34.78	0.2%	6	7.2	0.83×
AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 86	$27.19	4.3%	240	246.8	0.97×
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 85	$26.89	4.3%	264	249.6	1.06×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 77	$24.24	4.3%	248	276.9	0.90×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 71	$22.44	4.3%	291	299.0	0.97×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 100	$19.97	2.7%	239	212.0	1.13×
P2000 \| Dispatch (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 79	$15.77	2.7%	274	268.5	1.02×
AUG \| Momentum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 76	$15.07	2.7%	271	281.0	0.96×
M4A4 \| Polysoup (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 74	$14.84	2.7%	317	285.0	1.11×
P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 72	$14.44	2.7%	264	293.1	0.90×
MP9 \| Airlock (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 72	$14.35	2.7%	274	295.0	0.93×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 67	$13.37	2.7%	287	316.4	0.91×
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 67	$13.27	2.7%	336	319.0	1.05×
UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 39	$11.05	3.8%	648	546.3	1.19×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 31	$8.86	3.8%	800	681.0	1.17×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 31	$8.74	3.8%	759	690.6	1.10×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 31	$8.68	3.8%	677	695.2	0.97×
AWP \| POP AWP (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 31	$8.68	3.8%	546	695.2	0.79×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 57	$7.97	1.9%	363	370.3	0.98×
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 51	$6.64	1.7%	383	415.5	0.92×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 51	$6.56	1.7%	406	417.6	0.97×
UMP-45 \| Momentum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$6.24	1.7%	456	425.9	1.07×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 49	$6.07	1.7%	388	430.8	0.90×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 48	$5.56	1.6%	454	446.1	1.02×
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 47	$5.40	1.5%	485	451.2	1.07×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 46	$5.17	1.5%	438	459.2	0.95×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 45	$4.88	1.5%	500	470.1	1.06×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 45	$4.73	1.4%	466	475.8	0.98×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 44	$4.67	1.4%	480	478.3	1.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 44	$4.45	1.4%	467	487.7	0.96×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 43	$4.21	1.3%	486	498.5	0.97×
AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 42	$4.13	1.3%	470	502.3	0.94×
AUG \| Stymphalian (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 42	$4.02	1.3%	530	507.8	1.04×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 40	$3.66	1.2%	513	527.4	0.97×
MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 37	$3.06	1.1%	575	566.4	1.02×
USP-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 37	$2.92	1.1%	612	577.2	1.06×
AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 35	$2.66	1.0%	589	598.9	0.98×
M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 35	$2.52	1.0%	597	612.0	0.98×
MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 34	$2.45	1.0%	599	619.0	0.97×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Fubar (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · blue	1 in 34	$2.33	0.9%	604	631.6	0.96×
Dual Berettas \| Sweet Little Angels (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 32	$2.05	0.9%	695	664.7	1.05×
Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 32	$1.99	0.8%	670	672.7	1.00×
MP7 \| Prey (Factory New)weapon · gray	1 in 32	$1.99	0.8%	705	672.7	1.05×
Sticker \| Winding Scorch (Foil)sticker · #d32ce6	1 in 31	$1.91	0.8%	734	684.0	1.07×
Sticker \| Cedar Creek (Holo)sticker · violet	1 in 28	$1.58	0.8%	696	753.8	0.92×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/guard, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$8.50$42650.12x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$8.50$1.990.23xnow

AWP | Crakow! (Field-Tested)weapon · pink$8.50$27.193.20xnow

USP-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedtivson$8.50$3.660.43xnow

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$8.50$2.450.29x9s

Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary$8.50$8.861.04x9s

Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommontivson$8.50$2.050.24x9s

Sticker | Cedar Creek (Holo)sticker · violet$8.50$1.580.19x2m

Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary$8.50$6.560.77x2m

MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · LegendarySoBoL BuK$8.50$6.640.78x2m

MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary$8.50$6.640.78x2m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$8.50	87.50%	91
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$8.50	87.33%	91
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$8.50	87.48%	91
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$8.50	87.82%	91
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$8.50	87.32%	91
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$8.50	87.54%	91
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$8.50	87.32%	91
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$8.50	87.59%	91
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$8.50	87.54%	91
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$8.50	87.59%	91
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$8.50	87.54%	91
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$8.50	87.59%	91
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$8.50	87.51%	91
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$8.50	87.80%	91
5 Nov, 10:43 UTC	$8.50	87.27%	91
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$8.50	87.37%	91
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$8.50	87.52%	91
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$8.50	87.82%	91
3 Nov, 16:38 UTC	$8.50	87.68%	91
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$8.50	87.33%	91
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$8.50	87.68%	91

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedepic 0.0%covert 0.3%extraordinary 0.1%Ancient 0.2%rare 1.2%Immortal 0.1%sunny 0.0%red 0.0%pink 7.4%Legendary 23.3%classified 14.6%Rare 1.3%uncommon 7.0%#d32ee6 1.4%restricted 10.9%violet 6.8%Classified 1.7%Mythical 2.7%blue 5.7%#8847ff 2.8%#4b69ff 2.9%mil spec 3.2%gray 3.2%#d32ce6 3.2%best hit $426 (50.12x)