GUARD JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$88.45

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $77.39 from 91 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.41%

825 openings, odds method

Variance

1.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

11.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

73.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

71.16%±24.54122 openings

7 days

87.32%±10.35687 openings

30 days

89.41%±9.42825 openings

since tracking started

89.41%±9.42825 openings

46.0%72.8%99.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	122	71.16%±24.5	−1.3σ	odds
7d	687	87.32%±10.3	−0.0σ	odds
30d	825	89.41%±9.42	+0.4σ	odds
All	825	89.41%±9.42	+0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values91 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,006 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 91	$697	9.9%	11	11.0	1.00×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 91	$580	8.2%	15	11.0	1.36×
★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 91	$446	6.3%	9	11.0	0.81×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 91	$426	6.0%	18	11.0	1.63×
★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 91	$340	4.8%	9	11.0	0.81×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 91	$277	3.9%	14	11.0	1.27×
★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 91	$229	3.2%	9	11.0	0.81×
★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 91	$200	2.8%	13	11.0	1.18×
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 91	$196	2.8%	10	11.0	0.91×
★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 91	$196	2.8%	6	11.1	0.54×
★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 91	$195	2.8%	8	11.1	0.72×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 91	$172	2.4%	14	11.1	1.27×
★ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 91	$164	2.3%	8	11.1	0.72×
★ Nomad Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 91	$150	2.1%	8	11.1	0.72×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 91	$146	2.1%	10	11.1	0.90×
★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 91	$125	1.8%	16	11.1	1.45×
★ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 91	$119	1.7%	13	11.1	1.18×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Lt. Commander (Field-Tested)gloves · sunny	1 in 91	$116	1.6%	9	11.1	0.81×
★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 91	$114	1.6%	9	11.1	0.81×
AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 91	$111	1.6%	16	11.1	1.45×
★ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 91	$108	1.5%	13	11.1	1.18×
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 91	$102	1.5%	10	11.1	0.90×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 91	$93.57	1.3%	7	11.1	0.63×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 91	$90.51	1.3%	10	11.1	0.90×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 91	$87.71	1.2%	8	11.1	0.72×
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 91	$79.28	1.1%	11	11.1	0.99×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 91	$75.96	1.1%	3	11.1	0.27×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 91	$75.90	1.1%	12	11.1	1.09×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 91	$74.10	1.1%	10	11.1	0.90×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 91	$67.12	1.0%	11	11.1	0.99×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 91	$66.23	0.9%	14	11.1	1.27×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 91	$63.82	0.9%	14	11.1	1.27×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 91	$60.22	0.9%	11	11.1	0.99×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 91	$58.20	0.8%	15	11.1	1.36×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 91	$55.72	0.8%	15	11.1	1.36×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 91	$54.89	0.8%	8	11.1	0.72×
★ Kukri Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 91	$52.17	0.7%	17	11.1	1.54×
USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 91	$47.11	0.7%	14	11.1	1.27×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 91	$45.37	0.6%	10	11.1	0.90×
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 91	$41.17	0.6%	9	11.1	0.81×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 91	$41.03	0.6%	11	11.1	0.99×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 91	$40.79	0.6%	16	11.1	1.45×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 91	$38.37	0.5%	11	11.1	0.99×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 91	$38.14	0.5%	12	11.1	1.09×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 91	$38.08	0.5%	12	11.1	1.09×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 91	$37.36	0.5%	13	11.1	1.18×
★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 91	$34.78	0.5%	5	11.1	0.45×
AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 91	$27.19	0.4%	15	11.1	1.36×
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 91	$26.89	0.4%	16	11.1	1.45×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 91	$24.24	0.3%	13	11.1	1.18×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 91	$22.44	0.3%	9	11.1	0.81×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 91	$19.97	0.3%	12	11.1	1.09×
P2000 \| Dispatch (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 91	$15.77	0.2%	9	11.1	0.81×
AUG \| Momentum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 91	$15.07	0.2%	15	11.1	1.36×
M4A4 \| Polysoup (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 91	$14.84	0.2%	12	11.1	1.09×
P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 91	$14.44	0.2%	15	11.1	1.36×
MP9 \| Airlock (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 91	$14.35	0.2%	12	11.1	1.09×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 91	$13.37	0.2%	9	11.1	0.81×
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 91	$13.27	0.2%	9	11.1	0.81×
UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 91	$11.05	0.2%	8	11.1	0.72×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 91	$8.86	0.1%	10	11.1	0.90×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 91	$8.74	0.1%	13	11.1	1.18×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 91	$8.68	0.1%	8	11.1	0.72×
AWP \| POP AWP (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 91	$8.68	0.1%	8	11.1	0.72×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 91	$7.97	0.1%	12	11.1	1.09×
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 91	$6.64	0.1%	11	11.1	0.99×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 91	$6.56	0.1%	13	11.1	1.18×
UMP-45 \| Momentum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 91	$6.24	0.1%	8	11.1	0.72×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 91	$6.07	0.1%	14	11.1	1.27×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 91	$5.56	0.1%	8	11.1	0.72×
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 91	$5.40	0.1%	10	11.1	0.90×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 91	$5.17	0.1%	8	11.1	0.72×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 91	$4.88	0.1%	10	11.1	0.90×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 91	$4.73	0.1%	14	11.1	1.27×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 91	$4.67	0.1%	5	11.1	0.45×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 91	$4.45	0.1%	8	11.1	0.72×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 91	$4.21	0.1%	7	11.1	0.63×
AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 91	$4.13	0.1%	18	11.1	1.63×
AUG \| Stymphalian (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 91	$4.02	0.1%	8	11.1	0.72×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 91	$3.66	0.1%	12	11.1	1.09×
MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 91	$3.06	0.0%	10	11.1	0.90×
USP-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 91	$2.92	0.0%	8	11.1	0.72×
AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 91	$2.66	0.0%	14	11.1	1.27×
M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 91	$2.52	0.0%	5	11.1	0.45×
MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 91	$2.45	0.0%	9	11.1	0.81×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Fubar (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · blue	1 in 91	$2.33	0.0%	9	11.1	0.81×
Dual Berettas \| Sweet Little Angels (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 91	$2.05	0.0%	14	11.1	1.27×
Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 91	$1.99	0.0%	10	11.1	0.90×
MP7 \| Prey (Factory New)weapon · gray	1 in 91	$1.99	0.0%	13	11.1	1.18×
Sticker \| Winding Scorch (Foil)sticker · #d32ce6	1 in 91	$1.91	0.0%	13	11.1	1.18×
Sticker \| Cedar Creek (Holo)sticker · violet	1 in 91	$1.58	0.0%	15	11.1	1.36×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/guard-joker, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epic$90.74$7127.85x8d

★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epic$89.70$7047.85x4d

★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epicM9/BF GW Code : zurys$89.69$7047.85x5d

★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epic$88.35$7027.95x1d

★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epicI can_#039;t shootingCS2.MEskins.army$88.35$7027.95x1d

★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epic$88.99$7027.89x15h

★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epic$89.02$6997.86x3d

★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epicM9/BF GW Code : zurys$90.03$6817.57x7d

★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epicNaturalson$90.03$6817.57x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink$88.45$8.740.10x1h

AK-47 | Nightwish (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$88.45$74.100.84x1h

AK-47 | Safety Net (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$88.45$4.730.05x1h

AWP | POP AWP (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet$Janin$$88.45$8.680.10x1h

Desert Eagle | Starcade (Field-Tested)weapon · rareMİLESON$88.45$41.170.47x2h

Desert Eagle | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertMİLESON$88.45$54.890.62x2h

★ Kukri Knife | Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal$88.45$52.170.59x2h

M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified$88.45$7.970.09x2h

★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · rareChrasťoušekS$88.45$1952.20x2h

AK-47 | Head Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient$88.45$37.360.42x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$88.45	87.50%	91
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$88.99	87.50%	91
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$88.35	87.50%	91
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$89.34	87.50%	91
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$89.70	87.50%	91
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$89.02	87.50%	91
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$89.85	87.50%	91
7 Nov, 11:11 UTC	$89.70	87.50%	91
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$89.44	87.50%	91
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$89.85	87.50%	91
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$89.69	87.50%	91
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$89.80	87.50%	91
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$90.03	87.50%	91

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedepic 1.1%covert 25.3%extraordinary 5.5%Ancient 8.8%rare 5.5%Immortal 3.3%sunny 1.1%red 2.2%pink 4.4%Legendary 12.1%classified 8.8%Rare 1.1%uncommon 3.3%#d32ee6 1.1%restricted 4.4%violet 2.2%Classified 1.1%Mythical 1.1%blue 2.2%#8847ff 1.1%#4b69ff 1.1%mil spec 1.1%gray 1.1%#d32ce6 1.1%best hit $712 (7.85x)