HORUS

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$9.50

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $8.31 from 56 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.60%

8,205 openings, odds method

Variance

3.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

20.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

56.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

87.93%±11.041,248 openings

7 days

88.67%±4.906,672 openings

30 days

87.60%±4.428,205 openings

since tracking started

87.60%±4.428,205 openings

76.0%87.8%99.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,248	87.93%±11.0	+0.1σ	odds
7d	6,672	88.67%±4.90	+0.5σ	odds
30d	8,205	87.60%±4.42	+0.1σ	odds
All	8,205	87.60%±4.42	+0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values56 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,227 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 1,887	$513	3.3%	6	4.4	1.38×
M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,778	$226	1.0%	0	3.0	0.00×
M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 2,703	$223	1.0%	0	3.0	0.00×
M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,587	$171	1.3%	0	5.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 472	$126	3.2%	28	17.4	1.61×
FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,041	$83.46	0.5%	0	4.0	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 2,381	$65.16	0.3%	0	3.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,316	$63.72	0.6%	0	6.3	0.00×
FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 714	$49.23	0.8%	0	11.5	0.00×
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 606	$48.39	1.0%	0	13.6	0.00×
FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 625	$46.07	0.9%	0	13.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 658	$44.91	0.8%	0	12.5	0.00×
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 442	$41.36	1.1%	0	18.6	0.00×
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 431	$40.77	1.1%	0	19.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 543	$40.71	0.9%	0	15.1	0.00×
FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 469	$39.94	1.0%	0	17.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 510	$39.47	0.9%	0	16.1	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 15	$20.02	15.8%	0	538.5	0.00×
Nova \| Sobek's Bite (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 18	$15.27	10.5%	0	469.5	0.00×
P90 \| ScaraB Rush (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 17	$14.64	10.4%	0	488.0	0.00×
AWP \| Black Nile (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 100	$13.58	1.6%	0	82.4	0.00×
P90 \| ScaraB Rush (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 22	$11.80	6.5%	0	377.9	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	10.1%	$11.44	13.9%	0	829.4	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Mummy's Rot (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 78	$10.97	1.7%	0	105.3	0.00×
Nova \| Sobek's Bite (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 18	$10.95	7.4%	0	459.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 96	$10.48	1.3%	0	85.9	0.00×
CZ75-Auto \| Tread Plate (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 112	$8.08	0.9%	0	73.5	0.00×
CZ75-Auto \| Tread Plate (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 106	$7.76	0.9%	0	77.8	0.00×
CZ75-Auto \| Tread Plate (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 103	$7.60	0.9%	0	80.1	0.00×
Nova \| Sobek's Bite (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 71	$6.93	1.2%	0	116.3	0.00×
P90 \| ScaraB Rush (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 63	$6.17	1.2%	0	130.8	0.00×
AWP \| Black Nile (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 184	$5.48	0.4%	0	44.7	0.00×
MAG-7 \| Copper Coated (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 170	$3.90	0.3%	0	48.3	0.00×
AWP \| Black Nile (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 110	$3.79	0.4%	0	74.8	0.00×
AWP \| Black Nile (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 102	$3.60	0.4%	0	80.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 164	$3.59	0.3%	0	50.1	0.00×
AWP \| Black Nile (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 95	$3.41	0.4%	0	86.7	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Mummy's Rot (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 80	$2.65	0.4%	0	102.8	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Azure Glyph (Factory New)weapon · blueLight	1 in 424	$2.63	0.1%	0	19.4	0.00×
MAG-7 \| Copper Coated (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 84	$2.36	0.3%	0	97.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Mud-Spec (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 433	$2.26	0.1%	0	19.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 85	$2.25	0.3%	0	96.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 83	$2.20	0.3%	0	99.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 76	$2.06	0.3%	0	108.8	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Mummy's Rot (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 26	$1.19	0.5%	0	315.2	0.00×
MAG-7 \| Copper Coated (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 28	$1.06	0.5%	0	298.7	0.00×
P250 \| Red Tide (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 244	$0.97	0.0%	0	33.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Mud-Spec (Minimal Wear)weapon · light blue	1 in 93	$0.75	0.1%	0	88.8	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Azure Glyph (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueLight	1 in 55	$0.61	0.1%	0	149.8	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Mud-Spec (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blueLight	1 in 57	$0.53	0.1%	0	144.3	0.00×
P250 \| Red Tide (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 97	$0.50	0.1%	0	84.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Mud-Spec (Well-Worn)weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 44	$0.44	0.1%	0	187.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Mud-Spec (Field-Tested)weapon · light blue	1 in 31	$0.34	0.1%	0	268.4	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Azure Glyph (Field-Tested)weapon · blueLight	1 in 12	$0.20	0.2%	0	713.5	0.00×
P250 \| Red Tide (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 18	$0.15	0.1%	0	457.8	0.00×
P250 \| Red Tide (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 18	$0.15	0.1%	0	457.8	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/horus, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1SWEETIE JEW$9.50$53055.77x6d

★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1SZCZ3N4$9.50$52555.25x2d

★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$9.50$52054.73x1d

★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$9.50$51954.60x4d

★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$9.50$51354.03x2h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Tec-9 | Mummy's Rotweapon · blue$9.50$3.440.36x3m

Glock-18 | Ramese's Reachweapon · violet$9.50$14.941.57x3m

CZ75-Auto | Tread Plateweapon · violet$9.50$7.810.82x3m

Glock-18 | Ramese's Reachweapon · violettivson$9.50$14.941.57x3m

Glock-18 | Ramese's Reachweapon · violet$9.50$14.941.57x4m

SSG 08 | Azure Glyphweapon · blueLight$9.50$0.320.03x4m

P250 | Red Tideweapon · blueSoBoL BuK$9.50$0.210.02x4m

Nova | Sobek's Biteweapon · restricted$9.50$12.441.31x6m

Tec-9 | Mummy's Rotweapon · blue$9.50$3.440.36x6m

P250 | Red Tideweapon · blueSoBoL BuK$9.50$0.210.02x6m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$9.50	87.50%	56
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$9.50	87.56%	56
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$9.50	87.43%	56
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$9.50	87.16%	56
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$9.50	87.12%	56
9 Nov, 02:04 UTC	$9.50	87.80%	56
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$9.50	87.21%	56
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$9.50	87.80%	56
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$9.50	87.12%	56
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$9.50	87.29%	56
7 Nov, 05:08 UTC	$9.50	87.42%	56
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$9.50	87.16%	56
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$9.50	87.88%	56
5 Nov, 10:43 UTC	$9.50	87.49%	56
5 Nov, 04:40 UTC	$9.50	87.44%	56
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$9.50	87.49%	56
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$9.50	87.44%	56
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$9.50	87.72%	56
3 Nov, 15:55 UTC	$9.50	87.52%	56
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$9.50	87.14%	56

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.6%red 0.2%classified 0.7%violet 35.3%Ancient 0.2%pink 0.3%#d32ce6 0.2%#4b69ff 4.6%restricted 4.6%mil spec 1.3%blue 23.8%#8847ff 4.4%Rare 3.4%Mil Spec Grade 1.1%blueLight 12.5%Uncommon 0.2%light blue 4.3%Industrial Grade 2.3%best hit $530 (55.77x)