ISAMU V3

A case on Casehug (CREATORS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$75.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $65.62 from 68 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.10%

3,635 openings, odds method

Variance

6.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

21.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

69.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

82.25%±20.29581 openings

7 days

87.75%±8.833,137 openings

30 days

87.10%±8.213,635 openings

since tracking started

87.10%±8.213,635 openings

61.5%82.3%103.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	581	82.25%±20.3	−0.5σ	odds
7d	3,137	87.75%±8.83	+0.0σ	odds
30d	3,635	87.10%±8.21	−0.1σ	odds
All	3,635	87.10%±8.21	−0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values68 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,655 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 10,000	$13.8K	2.1%	0	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband	1 in 5,000	$6,120	1.9%	1	0.7	—
M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$3,825	1.2%	1	0.7	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby	1 in 5,000	$2,858	0.9%	1	0.7	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 3,333	$1,880	0.9%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 5,000	$1,494	0.5%	0	0.7	—
★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby	1 in 787	$595	1.2%	2	4.6	0.43×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,538	$549	0.5%	0	2.4	0.00×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,205	$487	0.6%	0	3.0	0.00×
★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 3,704	$410	0.2%	0	1.0	—
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,389	$345	0.4%	0	2.6	0.00×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$298	0.1%	0	0.7	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 81	$216	4.1%	0	45.2	0.00×
★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 73	$205	4.3%	0	50.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 91	$193	3.2%	0	40.1	0.00×
M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 115	$190	2.5%	0	31.7	0.00×
★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 118	$177	2.3%	0	31.0	0.00×
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 53	$166	4.8%	0	69.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 130	$155	1.8%	0	28.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 124	$152	1.9%	0	29.5	0.00×
★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 99	$151	2.3%	0	37.0	0.00×
★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 98	$151	2.3%	0	37.3	0.00×
★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 96	$149	2.4%	0	38.2	0.00×
★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 94	$148	2.4%	0	38.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 115	$147	1.9%	0	31.7	0.00×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 181	$129	1.1%	0	20.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 391	$125	0.5%	0	9.4	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 17	$83.95	7.7%	0	220.6	0.00×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 11	$80.83	11.2%	0	332.2	0.00×
★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 21	$74.53	5.4%	0	174.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 52	$73.54	2.2%	0	70.7	0.00×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 51	$72.97	2.2%	0	71.7	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 38	$64.08	2.5%	0	95.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 36	$62.75	2.6%	0	100.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 34	$60.80	2.7%	0	107.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 34	$60.80	2.7%	0	107.5	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 136	$59.20	0.7%	0	26.9	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 132	$58.20	0.7%	0	27.6	0.00×
P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 45	$56.24	1.9%	81	81.4	0.99×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 176	$55.72	0.5%	0	20.8	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 168	$54.01	0.5%	0	21.8	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 123	$44.40	0.6%	0	29.8	0.00×
AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 39	$44.35	1.7%	98	93.9	1.04×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 176	$40.79	0.4%	0	20.8	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 158	$38.10	0.4%	0	23.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 41	$36.64	1.3%	0	88.3	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 143	$35.89	0.4%	0	25.5	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 127	$33.26	0.4%	0	28.8	0.00×
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 207	$23.81	0.2%	0	17.6	0.00×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 469	$23.38	0.1%	0	7.8	0.00×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 249	$14.54	0.1%	0	14.7	0.00×
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 94	$14.46	0.2%	0	39.1	0.00×
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 93	$14.38	0.2%	0	39.4	0.00×
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 92	$14.35	0.2%	0	39.6	0.00×
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 82	$13.27	0.2%	0	44.8	0.00×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 98	$8.74	0.1%	0	37.4	0.00×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 72	$6.69	0.1%	0	50.8	0.00×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 44	$5.34	0.2%	0	82.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 42	$4.80	0.2%	0	86.4	0.00×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 37	$4.79	0.2%	0	97.8	0.00×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 37	$4.79	0.2%	0	97.8	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 83	$4.76	0.1%	0	43.8	0.00×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 40	$4.67	0.2%	0	90.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 39	$4.57	0.2%	0	93.5	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 35	$2.77	0.1%	0	104.1	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 34	$2.71	0.1%	0	107.8	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 32	$2.63	0.1%	0	113.1	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 30	$2.51	0.1%	0	121.7	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/isamu-v3, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband$75.00$6,12081.60x6d

M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classifiedHabiLive$75.00$3,66248.83x1d

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · RubyMokrySuchar$75.00$2,86738.23x2d

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimonogloves · sunny$75.00$1,77523.67x4d

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimonogloves · sunny$75.00$1,77523.67x6d

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimonogloves · sunny$75.00$1,76123.48x2d

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimonogloves · sunnyjose$75.00$1,75723.42x14h

★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby$75.00$5997.99x4d

★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughterknife · rare$75.00$5146.86x20h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Glock-18 | Gold Toofweapon · red$75.00$44.380.59x6m

M4A4 | Tooth Fairyweapon · classified$75.00$5.410.07x6m

★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Redgloves · sunnyO_#039;NEAL$75.00$87.971.17x6m

SG 553 | Cyrexweapon · pink$75.00$5.840.08x6m

M4A4 | Red DDPATweapon · violet$75.00$77.171.03x6m

P2000 | Imperial Dragonweapon · pink$75.00$15.040.20x6m

P2000 | Imperial Dragonweapon · pinkO_#039;NEAL$75.00$15.040.20x6m

★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Redgloves · sunny$75.00$87.971.17x56m

USP-S | Kill Confirmedweapon · red$75.00$80.901.08x56m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$75.00	87.50%	68
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$75.00	87.42%	68
10 Nov, 08:21 UTC	$75.00	87.65%	68
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC	$75.00	87.49%	68
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$75.00	87.63%	68
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$75.00	87.49%	68
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$75.00	87.58%	68
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$75.00	87.49%	68
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$75.00	87.58%	68
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$75.00	87.65%	68
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$75.00	87.32%	68
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$75.00	87.48%	68
5 Nov, 10:43 UTC	$75.00	87.60%	68
5 Nov, 04:40 UTC	$75.00	87.33%	68
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$75.00	87.60%	68
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$75.00	87.33%	68
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$75.00	87.43%	68
3 Nov, 15:55 UTC	$75.00	87.65%	68
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$75.00	87.55%	68

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 31.0%contraband 0.0%classified 22.6%legendary 0.1%extraordinary 9.3%restricted 3.3%rare 0.3%gold 0.7%Immortal 0.8%Ancient 0.6%red 2.1%pink 11.5%Legendary 2.9%#d32ee6 1.4%violet 10.6%uncommon 2.8%best hit $6,120 (81.60x)