JASONPLAY

A case on Casehug (CREATORS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$8.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $7.00 from 63 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.01%

6,493 openings, odds method

Variance

1.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

35.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

64.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

91.56%±8.18895 openings

7 days

86.68%±3.155,551 openings

30 days

87.01%±2.896,493 openings

since tracking started

87.01%±2.896,493 openings

82.5%91.5%100.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	895	91.56%±8.18	+1.0σ	odds
7d	5,551	86.68%±3.15	−0.5σ	odds
30d	6,493	87.01%±2.89	−0.3σ	odds
All	6,493	87.01%±2.89	−0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values63 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,503 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$269	0.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 33,333	$268	0.1%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$222	0.1%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$217	0.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$164	0.2%	0	0.7	—
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$153	0.4%	0	1.3	0.00×
★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$150	0.2%	0	0.7	—
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$143	0.6%	0	2.0	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$139	0.4%	0	1.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,030	$131	0.6%	0	2.1	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,703	$128	0.7%	0	2.4	0.00×
★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,429	$125	1.3%	4	4.6	0.88×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,632	$122	0.7%	0	2.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$113	0.1%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$85.27	0.2%	0	1.0	—
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 2,564	$75.44	0.4%	0	2.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$74.10	0.4%	0	2.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 2,326	$71.37	0.4%	0	2.8	0.00×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,408	$60.74	0.6%	0	4.6	0.00×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,299	$58.55	0.6%	0	5.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert	1 in 3,704	$57.58	0.2%	0	1.8	0.00×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,538	$56.82	0.5%	0	4.2	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 4,545	$51.53	0.2%	0	1.4	0.00×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,887	$44.05	0.3%	0	3.4	0.00×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 787	$40.36	0.7%	0	8.3	0.00×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,429	$38.14	0.4%	0	4.6	0.00×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 1,408	$37.68	0.4%	0	4.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,613	$37.36	0.3%	0	4.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Well-Worn)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,471	$35.60	0.3%	0	4.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 1,266	$33.08	0.4%	0	5.1	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,639	$30.76	0.3%	0	4.0	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 67	$19.95	4.3%	0	97.3	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 65	$19.72	4.3%	0	99.6	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 81	$16.55	2.9%	0	80.4	0.00×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 35	$15.65	6.5%	0	188.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 34	$15.51	6.5%	0	191.6	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 65	$14.84	3.3%	0	99.9	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 62	$14.49	3.3%	0	104.8	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 57	$13.87	3.5%	0	114.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	19.5%	$8.90	24.8%	0	1266.1	0.00×
P90 \| Deathgaze (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 30	$7.49	3.6%	0	220.2	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 14	$6.56	6.9%	0	475.4	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 13	$6.41	7.0%	0	498.0	0.00×
P90 \| Deathgaze (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 96	$6.07	0.9%	0	67.6	0.00×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 184	$6.07	0.5%	0	35.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 119	$5.88	0.7%	0	54.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 109	$5.56	0.7%	0	59.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 90	$4.94	0.8%	0	72.2	0.00×
P90 \| Deathgaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 64	$4.70	1.1%	0	101.8	0.00×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 103	$4.21	0.6%	0	63.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 49	$4.02	1.2%	0	133.2	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 48	$3.96	1.2%	0	136.4	0.00×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 76	$3.49	0.7%	0	85.4	0.00×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 74	$3.44	0.7%	0	87.5	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 156	$1.32	0.1%	0	41.6	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 45	$0.61	0.2%	0	142.9	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 33	$0.47	0.2%	0	195.8	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 30	$0.44	0.2%	0	217.6	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 26	$0.43	0.2%	0	250.0	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 25	$0.42	0.2%	0	259.5	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 24	$0.41	0.2%	0	269.7	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$0.34	0.2%	0	328.7	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$0.31	0.3%	0	381.0	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/jasonplay, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | The Empressweapon · red$8.00$12615.78x3m

UMP-45 | Primal Saberweapon · pinkSoBoL BuK$8.00$14.811.85x3m

Desert Eagle | Mecha Industriesweapon · classified$8.00$6.480.81x5m

Tec-9 | Red Quartzweapon · violet$8.00$0.370.05x5m

AK-47 | Ice Coaledweapon · pinktivson$8.00$8.451.06x5m

UMP-45 | Primal Saberweapon · pink$8.00$14.811.85x5m

Tec-9 | Red Quartzweapon · violet$8.00$0.370.05x5m

Tec-9 | Red Quartzweapon · violettivson$8.00$0.370.05x5m

USP-S | Jawbreakerweapon · pink$8.00$3.990.50x5m

AK-47 | Ice Coaledweapon · pinkliv$8.00$8.451.06x5m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$8.00	87.50%	63
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$8.00	87.35%	63
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$8.00	87.21%	63
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$8.00	87.53%	63
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$8.00	87.75%	63
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$8.00	87.42%	63
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$8.00	87.36%	63
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$8.00	87.42%	63
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$8.00	87.47%	63
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$8.00	87.36%	63
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$8.00	87.30%	63
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$8.00	87.26%	63
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$8.00	87.70%	63
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$8.00	87.26%	63
5 Nov, 04:40 UTC	$8.00	87.70%	63
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$8.00	87.28%	63
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$8.00	87.46%	63
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$8.00	87.62%	63
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$8.00	87.44%	63

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.6%extraordinary 0.0%red 0.2%Covert 0.0%classified 14.8%Ancient 0.3%Legendary 31.1%pink 17.3%#d32ee6 2.6%Classified 0.8%restricted 11.6%violet 20.5%best hit —