KNIFE
A case on Casehug (CS2 WEAPONS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$180.00
Advertised RTP
86.85%
EV $156.33 from 45 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.52%
1,081 openings, odds method
Variance
0.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
31.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values45 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,085 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/knife, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.85%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $180 | 86.85% | 45 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $180 | 87.37% | 45 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $180 | 87.02% | 45 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $180 | 87.05% | 45 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $180 | 87.03% | 45 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $180 | 87.47% | 45 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $180 | 87.05% | 45 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $180 | 87.02% | 45 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $180 | 86.90% | 45 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $180 | 86.53% | 45 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $180 | 87.30% | 45 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $180 | 86.83% | 45 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $180 | 87.40% | 45 |
| 3 Nov, 09:33 UTC | $180 | 87.35% | 45 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $180 | 87.11% | 45 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 94.2%sunny 1.6%gold 0.5%#ffd700 0.9%Immortal 2.7%best hit $1,164 (6.46x)