KNIFE JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$466.85
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $408.49 from 45 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.09%
81 openings, odds method
Variance
1.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 81 openings and 16.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values45 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 126 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/knife-joker, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $467 | 87.50% | 45 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $468 | 87.50% | 45 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $471 | 87.50% | 45 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $472 | 87.50% | 45 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $473 | 87.50% | 45 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $473 | 87.50% | 45 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $472 | 87.50% | 45 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $474 | 87.50% | 45 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 77.8%sunny 11.1%gold 4.4%#ffd700 4.4%Immortal 2.2%best hit $2,802 (5.93x)