LAB
A case on Casehug (HIGH RISK), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$150.00
Advertised RTP
87.41%
EV $131.11 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.03%
1,180 openings, odds method
Variance
9.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 21
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,180 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 194 | $5,630 | 22.2% | 5 | 6.1 | 0.82× |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 337 | $1,444 | 3.3% | 0 | 3.5 | 0.00× |
| M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 66 | $1,021 | 11.8% | 0 | 18.0 | 0.00× |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 40 | $821 | 15.7% | 0 | 29.7 | 0.00× |
| M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 67 | $756 | 8.6% | 0 | 17.6 | 0.00× |
| ★ Karambit | Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 1 in 29 | $606 | 15.7% | 35 | 40.1 | 0.87× |
| Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 19 | $471 | 19.0% | 61 | 62.5 | 0.98× |
| AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 85.0% | $5.57 | 3.6% | 1,002 | 1002.5 | 1.00× |
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/lab, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.41%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $150 | 87.41% | 8 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $150 | 87.08% | 8 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $150 | 87.06% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $150 | 87.07% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $150 | 87.03% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $150 | 87.07% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $150 | 87.03% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $150 | 87.07% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $150 | 87.03% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $150 | 87.07% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $150 | 87.13% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $150 | 87.01% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $150 | 87.03% | 8 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $150 | 87.03% | 8 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $150 | 87.20% | 8 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $150 | 87.03% | 8 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $150 | 87.20% | 8 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $150 | 87.12% | 8 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $150 | 86.60% | 8 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $150 | 86.93% | 8 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $150 | 87.03% | 8 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $150 | 86.76% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 6.9%extraordinary 2.8%restricted 90.3%best hit $6,009 (40.06x)