LAB JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$1,608.50
Advertised RTP
90.50%
EV $1,455.70 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.64%
321 openings, odds method
Variance
1.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
83.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 347 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 16.7% | $5,630 | 64.5% | 55 | 57.8 | 0.95× |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 12 | $1,444 | 8.3% | 0 | 28.9 | 0.00× |
| M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 12 | $1,021 | 5.8% | 0 | 28.9 | 0.00× |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 12 | $821 | 4.7% | 0 | 28.9 | 0.00× |
| M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 12 | $756 | 4.3% | 0 | 28.9 | 0.00× |
| ★ Karambit | Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 16.7% | $606 | 6.9% | 66 | 57.8 | 1.14× |
| Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 16.7% | $471 | 5.4% | 60 | 57.8 | 1.04× |
| AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 16.7% | $5.57 | 0.1% | 55 | 57.8 | 0.95× |
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/lab-joker, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $1,609 | 90.50% | 8 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $1,608 | 90.50% | 8 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $1,665 | 90.50% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $1,699 | 90.50% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $1,658 | 90.50% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $1,661 | 90.50% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $1,657 | 90.50% | 8 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $1,695 | 90.50% | 8 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1,690 | 90.50% | 8 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $1,687 | 90.50% | 8 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $1,592 | 90.50% | 8 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $1,592 | 90.50% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 50.0%extraordinary 16.7%restricted 33.3%best hit $6,009 (3.55x)