LORE OF ARABESQUE
A case on Casehug (PREMIUM FARM), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$38.75
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $33.91 from 20 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.41%
16.4K openings, odds method
Variance
9.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 30
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16.4K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/lore-of-arabesque, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $38.75 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $38.75 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $38.75 | 87.42% | 20 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $38.75 | 87.37% | 20 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $38.75 | 88.09% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $38.75 | 87.20% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $38.75 | 88.36% | 20 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $38.75 | 88.28% | 20 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $38.75 | 88.36% | 20 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $38.75 | 88.39% | 20 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $38.75 | 88.18% | 20 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $38.75 | 87.74% | 20 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $38.75 | 87.72% | 20 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $38.75 | 87.33% | 20 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $38.75 | 87.72% | 20 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $38.75 | 87.33% | 20 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $38.75 | 87.37% | 20 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $38.75 | 87.33% | 20 |
| 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $38.75 | 86.73% | 20 |
| 2 Nov, 22:28 UTC | $38.75 | 86.96% | 20 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $38.75 | 87.52% | 20 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $38.75 | 86.96% | 20 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.8%Immortal 2.7%gold 0.3%legendary 0.2%sunny 0.3%classified 1.3%pink 15.8%blue 48.5%violet 28.1%best hit $1,737 (44.83x)