LORE OF ARABESQUE JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$467.14
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $408.75 from 20 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.35%
892 openings, odds method
Variance
1.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,004 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/lore-of-arabesque-joker, 12 Nov, 14:56 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov, 14:56 UTC | $467 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $471 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $474 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $472 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $474 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $473 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $472 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $471 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $473 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $470 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $473 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $473 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $473 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $473 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $474 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $476 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $475 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $473 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 4 Nov, 04:46 UTC | $475 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $477 | 87.50% | 20 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 31.8%Immortal 12.1%gold 4.5%legendary 3.0%sunny 3.0%classified 9.1%pink 9.1%blue 18.2%violet 9.1%best hit $1,855 (3.89x)