LOTUS FLOWER

A case on Casehug (PREMIUM FARM), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$195.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $170.63 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d

81.23%

4,274 openings, odds method

Variance

10.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 25

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

91.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

74.27%±22.60791 openings

7 days

80.97%±11.503,395 openings

30 days

81.23%±10.374,274 openings

since tracking started

81.23%±10.374,274 openings

51.0%74.3%97.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	791	74.27%±22.6	−1.1σ	odds
7d	3,395	80.97%±11.5	−1.1σ	odds
30d	4,274	81.23%±10.4	−1.1σ	odds
All	4,274	81.23%±10.4	−1.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,296 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 10,000	$18.9K	1.1%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$13.8K	1.6%	0	0.9	—
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$9,628	1.7%	0	1.3	0.00×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 588	$8,537	8.5%	8	7.3	1.10×
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,667	$7,031	2.5%	0	2.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,111	$5,630	3.0%	0	3.9	0.00×
MP9 \| Wild Lily (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 227	$3,324	8.6%	15	18.9	0.79×
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 154	$2,233	8.5%	24	27.9	0.86×
★ Sport Gloves \| Ultra Violent (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary	1 in 714	$2,129	1.7%	0	6.0	0.00×
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 357	$1,508	2.5%	0	12.0	0.00×
★ Sport Gloves \| Ultra Violent (Field-Tested)gloves · sunny	1 in 208	$1,124	3.2%	0	20.6	0.00×
★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$1,123	6.6%	42	43.0	0.98×
★ Sport Gloves \| Ultra Violent (Well-Worn)gloves · sunny	1 in 154	$969	3.7%	0	27.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Daybreak (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 56	$809	8.5%	54	76.9	0.70×
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 100	$797	4.7%	45	43.0	1.05×
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 59	$610	6.0%	0	72.6	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Copper Borre (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 14	$136	5.8%	387	312.7	1.24×
Nova \| Modern Hunter (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 11	$88.56	4.9%	460	404.7	1.14×
FAMAS \| Sundown (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 10	$83.77	4.8%	472	416.3	1.13×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	10.5%	$71.74	4.4%	526	449.8	1.17×
USP-S \| Road Rash (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	14.9%	$35.40	3.1%	644	640.5	1.01×
Souvenir XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · violet	18.5%	$23.06	2.5%	718	793.5	0.90×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Death Grip (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · violet	21.3%	$17.92	2.2%	795	913.3	0.87×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/lotus-flower, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · EmeraldDr.Dre$195$8,76944.97x7d

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · EmeraldSuzii$195$8,63744.29x5d

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · EmeraldPuzonik$195$8,56643.93x6d

AK-47 | Wild Lotusweapon · red$195$8,52943.74x5d

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$195$8,49143.55x1d

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · EmeraldLYSY_HYPERCS2.MESKINS.ARMY$195$8,46443.41x3d

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · EmeraldSuzii$195$8,46443.41x3d

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$195$8,46443.41x4d

AK-47 | Wild Lotusweapon · red$195$8,26542.39x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Wild Lotusweapon · red$195$8,01241.09x3m

StatTrak™ P90 | Death Grip (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · violet$195$17.920.09x3m

USP-S | Road Rash (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$195$35.400.18x3m

StatTrak™ P90 | Death Grip (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · violetN:OW$195$17.920.09x3m

AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$195$71.740.37x25m

StatTrak™ P90 | Death Grip (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · violet$195$17.920.09x25m

USP-S | Road Rash (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedWuj WodzU$195$35.400.18x25m

StatTrak™ P90 | Death Grip (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · violet$195$17.920.09x42m

USP-S | Road Rash (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$195$35.400.18x42m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$195	87.50%	23
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$195	87.36%	23
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$195	88.02%	23
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$195	86.97%	23
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$195	87.09%	23
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$195	87.10%	23
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$195	87.32%	23
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$195	87.10%	23
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$195	87.28%	23
7 Nov, 11:11 UTC	$195	86.61%	23
7 Nov, 05:08 UTC	$195	87.28%	23
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$195	87.59%	23
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$195	87.62%	23
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$195	87.00%	23
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$195	87.62%	23
5 Nov, 04:40 UTC	$195	87.00%	23
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$195	87.00%	23
3 Nov, 16:38 UTC	$195	87.15%	23
3 Nov, 15:55 UTC	$195	87.48%	23
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$195	87.03%	23

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.1%covert 14.5%classified 0.4%sunny 1.1%restricted 16.7%rare 1.0%blue 26.4%violet 39.7%best hit $8,769 (44.97x)