LOTUS FLOWER JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$2,192.61
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $1,918.53 from 23 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.94%
1,629 openings, odds method
Variance
2.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,782 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/lotus-flower-joker, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $2,193 | 87.50% | 23 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $2,196 | 87.50% | 23 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $2,193 | 87.50% | 23 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $2,199 | 87.50% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $2,216 | 87.50% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $2,227 | 87.50% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $2,214 | 87.50% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $2,207 | 87.50% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $2,216 | 87.50% | 23 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $2,214 | 87.50% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $2,207 | 87.50% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $2,222 | 87.50% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $2,223 | 87.50% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $2,232 | 87.50% | 23 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $2,210 | 87.50% | 23 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $2,232 | 87.50% | 23 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 3.3%covert 36.3%classified 6.3%sunny 4.2%restricted 12.5%rare 6.3%blue 18.8%violet 12.5%best hit $11.3K (5.10x)