M4A4

A case on Casehug (CS2 WEAPONS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$2.75

Advertised RTP

87.84%

EV $2.42 from 124 items

Observed RTP, 30d

81.40%

22.8K openings, odds method

Variance

108.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

12.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

60.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

79.29%±37.582,957 openings

7 days

81.81%±14.3920.3K openings

30 days

81.40%±13.5522.8K openings

since tracking started

81.40%±13.5522.8K openings

41.0%79.3%117.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2,957	79.29%±37.6	−0.4σ	odds
7d	20.3K	81.81%±14.4	−0.8σ	odds
30d	22.8K	81.40%±13.6	−0.9σ	odds
All	22.8K	81.40%±13.6	−0.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values124 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband	1 in 50,000	$6,120	5.1%	0	0.5	—
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 50,000	$1,435	1.2%	0	0.5	—
M4A4 \| Daybreak (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 50,000	$799	0.7%	0	0.5	—
M4A4 \| The Coalition (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 100,000	$324	0.1%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$307	0.1%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$246	0.1%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 50,000	$236	0.2%	2	0.5	—
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Factory New)weapon · epic	1 in 100,000	$203	0.1%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Hellish (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 100,000	$183	0.1%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| The Coalition (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 100,000	$172	0.1%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 50,000	$156	0.1%	0	0.5	—
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 20,000	$137	0.3%	2	1.1	1.75×
M4A4 \| The Coalition (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 33,333	$120	0.1%	0	0.7	—
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$106	0.0%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 12,500	$105	0.3%	0	1.8	0.00×
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$102	0.1%	0	0.7	—
M4A4 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 33,333	$99.99	0.1%	0	0.7	—
M4A4 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 14,286	$98.55	0.3%	0	1.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$90.76	0.4%	3	2.3	1.31×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 33,333	$87.55	0.1%	0	0.7	—
M4A4 \| Griffin (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100,000	$81.55	0.0%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$68.70	0.0%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 50,000	$68.38	0.1%	0	0.5	—
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100,000	$64.61	0.0%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 50,000	$63.74	0.1%	0	0.5	—
M4A4 \| Dark Blossom (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 20,000	$62.44	0.1%	2	1.1	1.75×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$55.89	0.0%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Global Offensive (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 10,000	$47.11	0.2%	1	2.3	0.44×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 11,111	$46.94	0.2%	0	2.1	0.00×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 100,000	$45.89	0.0%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 10,000	$39.47	0.2%	3	2.3	1.31×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 50,000	$39.31	0.0%	0	0.5	—
M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 50,000	$39.28	0.0%	0	0.5	—
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 50,000	$39.09	0.0%	0	0.5	—
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 50,000	$38.39	0.0%	0	0.5	—
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 100,000	$38.01	0.0%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Temukau (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 50,000	$35.86	0.0%	0	0.5	—
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$35.83	0.0%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 5,882	$34.36	0.2%	0	3.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 50,000	$33.72	0.0%	0	0.5	—
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$33.08	0.0%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100,000	$32.88	0.0%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 4,000	$27.62	0.3%	0	5.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 20,000	$26.87	0.1%	0	1.1	0.00×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 11,111	$24.74	0.1%	0	2.1	0.00×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$23.61	0.2%	0	4.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| Zirka (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 1,220	$22.14	0.8%	16	18.8	0.85×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 50,000	$18.24	0.0%	0	0.5	—
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 2,381	$16.38	0.3%	0	9.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 4,348	$16.28	0.2%	0	5.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,381	$16.28	0.3%	0	9.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 826	$14.99	0.8%	0	27.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Polysoup (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 4,545	$14.95	0.1%	0	5.0	0.00×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 1,667	$13.61	0.3%	0	13.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 20,000	$12.47	0.0%	0	1.1	0.00×
M4A4 \| Polysoup (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 2,703	$11.45	0.2%	0	8.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 1,111	$11.15	0.4%	0	20.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| Polysoup (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 93	$10.07	4.5%	0	245.0	0.00×
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 72	$9.75	5.6%	0	319.4	0.00×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 183	$8.51	1.9%	0	124.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Polysoup (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 54	$7.63	5.9%	0	426.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Griffin (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 80	$7.03	3.6%	0	284.4	0.00×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 87	$6.73	3.2%	0	262.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$6.64	8.3%	0	688.0	0.00×
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 578	$6.40	0.5%	0	39.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 87	$5.83	2.8%	0	262.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 270	$5.02	0.8%	0	84.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 44	$4.80	4.5%	0	519.1	0.00×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 40	$4.57	4.7%	0	573.4	0.00×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 39	$4.51	4.8%	0	588.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 39	$4.03	4.3%	0	583.4	0.00×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 38	$3.98	4.3%	0	596.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 270	$3.78	0.6%	0	84.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Griffin (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 22	$3.75	7.1%	0	1050.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 21	$3.66	7.3%	0	1104.4	0.00×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 31	$3.60	4.8%	0	730.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 76	$3.49	1.9%	0	302.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 820	$2.19	0.1%	0	27.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Converter (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 549	$1.65	0.1%	0	41.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 820	$1.44	0.1%	0	27.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 330	$1.36	0.2%	0	69.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 275	$1.32	0.2%	0	83.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Choppa (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 100,000	$1.30	0.0%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Turbine (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 236	$1.16	0.2%	0	97.0	0.00×
M4A4 \| Converter (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 236	$1.06	0.2%	0	97.0	0.00×
M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 549	$1.03	0.1%	0	41.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 1,613	$0.95	0.0%	0	14.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 236	$0.83	0.1%	0	97.0	0.00×
M4A4 \| Zubastick (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 1,639	$0.81	0.0%	0	14.0	0.00×
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 236	$0.80	0.1%	0	97.0	0.00×
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 183	$0.72	0.2%	0	124.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Converter (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 110	$0.67	0.3%	0	207.8	0.00×
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 183	$0.58	0.1%	0	124.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 165	$0.44	0.1%	0	138.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 150	$0.42	0.1%	0	152.4	0.00×
M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 138	$0.40	0.1%	0	166.1	0.00×
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 57	$0.28	0.2%	0	401.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Mainframe (Factory New)weapon · light blue	1 in 820	$0.28	0.0%	0	27.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 820	$0.26	0.0%	0	27.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Zubastick (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 275	$0.24	0.0%	0	83.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Choppa (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 330	$0.23	0.0%	0	69.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 206	$0.17	0.0%	0	111.0	0.00×
M4A4 \| Steel Work (Factory New)weapon · blueLight	1 in 820	$0.17	0.0%	0	27.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Choppa (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 75	$0.09	0.0%	0	304.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| Zubastick (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 64	$0.09	0.1%	0	359.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 66	$0.08	0.1%	0	345.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Zubastick (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 52	$0.08	0.1%	0	443.0	0.00×
M4A4 \| Zubastick (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 52	$0.08	0.1%	0	443.0	0.00×
M4A4 \| Choppa (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 39	$0.06	0.1%	0	581.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Choppa (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 39	$0.06	0.1%	0	581.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Well-Worn)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 41	$0.06	0.1%	0	553.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Rare	1 in 41	$0.06	0.1%	0	553.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| Mainframe (Well-Worn)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 72	$0.06	0.0%	0	318.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Mainframe (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 72	$0.06	0.0%	0	318.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 83	$0.06	0.0%	0	276.8	0.00×
M4A4 \| Mainframe (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueLight	1 in 53	$0.05	0.0%	0	429.0	0.00×
M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 64	$0.05	0.0%	0	359.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Mainframe (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 23	$0.03	0.1%	0	982.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 28	$0.03	0.0%	0	816.4	0.00×
M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · light blue	1 in 28	$0.03	0.0%	0	816.4	0.00×
M4A4 \| Steel Work (Well-Worn)weapon · blueLight	1 in 45	$0.03	0.0%	0	512.1	0.00×
M4A4 \| Steel Work (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 45	$0.03	0.0%	0	512.1	0.00×
M4A4 \| Steel Work (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 23	$0.02	0.0%	0	982.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Steel Work (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 23	$0.02	0.0%	0	982.2	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/m4a4, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Field-Tested)weapon · red$2.75$26596.41x2d

M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Field-Tested)weapon · red$2.75$25994.00x4d

M4A4 | The Coalitionweapon · covert$2.75$17262.66x4d

M4A4 | The Coalitionweapon · covert$2.75$17262.66x5d

M4A4 | The Coalitionweapon · covertMaltior$2.75$16961.33x3d

M4A4 | Hellfire (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$2.75$14151.15x4d

M4A4 | Hellfire (Field-Tested)weapon · classifieddamianxc21$2.75$14151.15x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A4 | Zubastickweapon · blue$2.75$0.100.04x45s

M4A4 | Poly Magweapon · bluetivson$2.75$0.080.03x45s

M4A4 | Steel Workweapon · blueLight$2.75$0.020.01x53s

M4A4 | Naval Shred Camoweapon · blueLighttivson$2.75$0.040.01x53s

M4A4 | Etch Lordweapon · violet$2.75$0.950.35x1m

M4A4 | Sheet Lightningweapon · violet$2.75$1.700.62x1m

M4A4 | Naval Shred Camoweapon · blueLighttivson$2.75$0.040.01x1m

M4A4 | Griffinweapon · violet$2.75$4.101.49x2m

M4A4 | Choppaweapon · blueTomczak skins.army$2.75$0.070.03x2m

M4A4 | Mainframeweapon · blueLightWitold Pilecki$2.75$0.050.02x2m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.84%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$2.75	87.84%	124
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$2.75	87.50%	124
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$2.75	87.84%	124
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$2.75	87.32%	124
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$2.75	87.17%	124
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$2.75	87.56%	124
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$2.75	87.23%	124
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$2.75	87.56%	124
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$2.75	87.23%	124
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$2.75	87.67%	124
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$2.75	87.22%	124
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$2.75	87.61%	124
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$2.75	87.22%	124
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$2.75	86.95%	124
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$2.75	87.51%	124
5 Nov, 10:43 UTC	$2.75	86.99%	124
5 Nov, 04:40 UTC	$2.75	87.72%	124
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$2.75	86.99%	124
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$2.75	87.72%	124
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$2.75	87.52%	124
3 Nov, 09:33 UTC	$2.75	87.67%	124
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$2.75	87.71%	124

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcontraband 0.0%classified 0.1%restricted 22.3%Ancient 0.0%covert 0.0%red 0.1%epic 0.0%rare 0.0%#eb4b4b 0.0%industrial 0.0%blue 9.0%mil spec 3.0%Legendary 2.5%pink 5.0%violet 7.6%Mythical 3.3%uncommon 0.1%#8847ff 1.9%Classified 0.1%#d32ee6 1.1%milspec 5.1%Rare 4.1%light blue 3.7%Uncommon 13.7%blueLight 4.2%Mil Spec Grade 2.4%#87c7ff 2.8%#5e98d9 7.9%best hit $265 (96.41x)